气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Precipitation Seasonality Amplifies as Earth Warms

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DOI	10.1029/2024GL109132
	Precipitation Seasonality Amplifies as Earth Warms
	Wang, Xiaoyu; Luo, Ming; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Sijia; Chen, Yongqin David; Zhang, Wei
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
起始页码	51
结束页码	10
卷号	51 期号:10
英文摘要	Precipitation exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle, of which the phase and amplitude are closely associated with water resource management. While previous studies suggested an emerged delaying phase in the past decades, whether the amplified amplitude has emerged is controversial. Using multiple observational data sets and climate simulations, here we show that the amplification of precipitation annual cycle has emerged in most global land areas since the 1980s, especially in the tropics. These amplifications are mainly driven by anthropogenic emissions, and will be further intensified by 17.6% in the future (2081-2100) under high emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP585), and limited to 7.2% under SSP126 scenario, relative to the historical period (1982-2014). Precipitation seasonality will be amplified by 4.2% for each 1 degrees C of global warming, which is seen in all emission scenarios. The mitigation of lower emissions is helpful for alleviating the amplification of precipitation seasonality in a warming world. Precipitation displays pronounced seasonal cycle, and its phase and amplitude are closely associated with ecosystems and our society by redistributing water resources. The phase of precipitation cycle has been well understood in previous studies, but how its magnitude changes remain largely unknown. In this study, we use multiple observational data sets and climate simulations to show that precipitation annual cycle has been amplified in most parts of global land area since the 1980s. These amplifications are especially strong in the tropical regions, and are mainly driven by the increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. In the future (2081-2100) under high emission scenario (SSP585), they will be further intensified by 17.6% relative to the historical period (1982-2014), and will be limited to 7.2% under low emission scenario (SSP126). We also estimate that the amplitude of precipitation seasonality will be increased by around 4.2% for each 1 degrees C of global warming, and suggest that keeping lower emissions is helpful for alleviating the amplification of precipitation seasonality. Precipitation annual cycle has been amplified in most global land areas since the 1980s, especially in the tropics Precipitation seasonality amplification will be intensified in the future, mainly driven by anthropogenic emissions The amplitude of precipitation seasonality will be amplified by similar to 4.2% for each 1 degrees C of global warming
英文关键词	precipitation seasonality; climate change; global warming; precipitation cycle; precipitation change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001219113700001
来源期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305211
作者单位	Sun Yat Sen University; Ocean University of China; Laoshan Laboratory; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Utah System of Higher Education; Utah State University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Xiaoyu,Luo, Ming,Song, Fengfei,et al. Precipitation Seasonality Amplifies as Earth Warms[J],2024,51(10).
APA	Wang, Xiaoyu,Luo, Ming,Song, Fengfei,Wu, Sijia,Chen, Yongqin David,&Zhang, Wei.(2024).Precipitation Seasonality Amplifies as Earth Warms.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,51(10).
MLA	Wang, Xiaoyu,et al."Precipitation Seasonality Amplifies as Earth Warms".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 51.10(2024).