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| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170638 |
| Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0048-9697 |
| EISSN | 1879-1026 |
| 起始页码 | 918 |
| 卷号 | 918 |
| 英文摘要 | Affected by both future anthropogenic emissions and climate change, future prediction of PM2.5 and its Oxidative Potential (OP) distribution is a significant challenge, especially in developing countries like China. To overcome this challenge, we estimated historical and future PM2.5 concentrations and associated OP using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) system with meteorological input from WRF weather forecast model. Considering different future socio-economic pathways and emission scenario assumptions, we quantified how the contribution from various anthropogenic emission sectors will change under these scenarios. Results show that compared to the CESM_SSP2-4.5_CLE scenario (based on moderate radiative forcing and Current Legislation Emission), the CESM_SSP1-2.6_MFR scenario (based on sustainability development and Maximum Feasible Reductions) is projected to yield greater environmental and health benefits in the future. Under the CESM_SSP1-2.6_MFR scenario, annual average PM2.5 concentrations (OP) are expected to decrease to 30 jig m- 3 (0.8 nmol min -1 m- 3) in almost all regions by 2030, which will be 65 % (67 %) lower than that in 2010. From a long-term perspective, it is anticipated that OP in the Fen -Wei Plain region will experience the maximum reduction (82.6 %) from 2010 to 2049. Largely benefiting from the effective control of PM2.5 in the region, it has decreased by 82.1 %. Crucially, once emission reduction measures reach a certain level (in 2040), further reductions become less significant. This study also emphasized the significant role of secondary aerosol formation and biomass -burning sources in influencing OP during both historical and future periods. In different scenarios, the reduction range of OP from 2010 to 2049 is estimated to be between 71 % and 85 % by controlling precursor emissions involved in secondary aerosol formation and emissions from biomass burning. Results indicate that strengthening the control of anthropogenic emissions in various regions are key to achieving air quality targets and safeguarding human health in the future. |
| 英文关键词 | Anthropogenic emissions; Future prediction; Oxidative potential; PM 2.5 concentrations; Scenario assumptions |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001182171700001 |
| 来源期刊 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305070 |
| 作者单位 | Harbin Institute of Technology; Aarhus University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China[J],2024,918. |
| APA | (2024).Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,918. |
| MLA | "Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 918(2024). |
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