气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting regional cumulative effects of future development on coastal ecosystems to support Indigenous governance

CCPortal

DOI	10.1111/1365-2664.14659
	Predicting regional cumulative effects of future development on coastal ecosystems to support Indigenous governance
	Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D.; Adams, Megan; Finn, Riley; Bourbonnais, Mathieu; Avery-Gomm, Stephanie; Penn, Briony; Martin, Tara G.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0021-8901
EISSN	1365-2664
英文摘要	1. To achieve better biodiversity outcomes and match local governance capacity, cumulative effects assessment frameworks that combine Indigenous and western knowledge to predict future development impacts on biodiversity are needed. 2. We developed a spatial future-focused model informed by inclusive elicitation and strategic foresight to assess the regional cumulative effects of development on ecosystem health across the land and sea. We collaborated with three First Nations on the Central Coast of British Columbia, Canada, enabling Indigenous priorities, knowledge and values to drive the process, from the choice of priority ecosystem components (including salmon, herring, seabirds and bears), to identifying future development scenarios (based on forestry, energy/mining, tourism and salmon aquaculture sectors). Bayesian networks were populated with empirical data and expert judgement elicited from knowledge holders to predict the cumulative effects of current and future pressures on species and ecosystems. 3. Under current conditions, the lowest probability of persistence was predicted for Pacific salmon (37%), followed by Pacific herring (43%). Under future conditions, the greatest declines in species health were associated with the intense development of mining, tourism and forestry, with up to a 54% decline from the current baseline health estimates predicted for Marbled Murrelets and old-growth forest. 4. Future outcomes for overall ecosystem health were predicted to be worst in scenarios with high future forestry activities (>60% decline in some areas). The continuation or development of all four industries resulted in an 8% decline overall in ecosystem health across the Central Coast. In contrast, predicted ecosystem health in the tourism economy scenario increased up to 15% in some marine areas, primarily driven by the removal of salmon aquaculture and forestry activities. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates an inclusive, regional approach to assessing the cumulative effects of future development on coastal species. The novel participatory tools and predictive framework draw upon and interweave multiple forms of knowledge, enabling Indigenous values to drive the process, and appropriately integrate Indigenous knowledge into regional cumulative effects assessment. Our interactive web application provides First Nations partners access to all outputs, supporting Indigenous-led governance and in situ ecosystem-based management of their lands and water.
英文关键词	Bayesian network; cumulative impacts; ecosystem-based management; expert knowledge; Great Bear Rainforest; salmon; scenario planning
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:001215264700001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305020
作者单位	University of British Columbia; University of British Columbia; University of British Columbia Okanagan; Environment & Climate Change Canada; Canadian Wildlife Service; National Wildlife Research Centre - Canada; University of Victoria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D.,Adams, Megan,Finn, Riley,et al. Predicting regional cumulative effects of future development on coastal ecosystems to support Indigenous governance[J],2024.
APA	Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D..,Adams, Megan.,Finn, Riley.,Bourbonnais, Mathieu.,Avery-Gomm, Stephanie.,...&Martin, Tara G..(2024).Predicting regional cumulative effects of future development on coastal ecosystems to support Indigenous governance.JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY.
MLA	Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D.,et al."Predicting regional cumulative effects of future development on coastal ecosystems to support Indigenous governance".JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY (2024).