气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Capturing uncertainty when modelling environmental drivers of fish populations, with an illustrative application to Pacific Cod in the eastern Bering Sea

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.fishres.2024.106951
	Capturing uncertainty when modelling environmental drivers of fish populations, with an illustrative application to Pacific Cod in the eastern Bering Sea
	Punt, Andre E.; Dalton, Michael G.; Adams, Grant D.; Barbeaux, Steven J.; Cheng, Wei; Hermann, Albert J.; Holsman, Kirstin K.; Hulson, Peter -John F.; Hurst, Thomas P.; Rovellini, Alberto
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0165-7836
EISSN	1872-6763
起始页码	272
卷号	272
英文摘要	Decision makers are increasingly requesting that environmental and climate drivers be included in stock assessments and subsequent projections that provide managers with advice on the consequences of applying harvest control rules. Another key direction in stock assessment science is to capture the full range of uncertainty (model, process, and estimation). However, multiple sources of uncertainty are rarely accounted for when conducting projections based on environmental and climate drivers. We describe a framework for conducting projections that allows for structural model uncertainty (in the structure of the population dynamics model on which the assessment is based, and the Earth System Models and emission scenarios used to drive future recruitment and growth), for process error in future recruitment, and for uncertainty in the parameter estimates of the population dynamics model. We then apply the framework to data for Pacific cod, Gadus macrocephalus, in the eastern Bering Sea, with projections based on a harvest control rule that attempts to maximize the difference between revenue and variable costs based on the current growth and recruitment dynamics of the stock. Increases in temperature are found to increase weight -at -age but reduce recruitment. However, the negative effects on recruitment outweigh the positive effects on weight -at -age. In many cases, the harvest control rules considered in this paper, particularly those based on the assumption of no future environmental effects on population parameters, fail to conserve the stock if the inferred catch limits are taken, which suggests that declines in biomass and catch will take place if the current harvest control rules continue to be used. The strategies that lead to reductions in catch and biomass also lead to much lower profits for the fishery, particularly over the long-term. However, basing future catches on the environmental scenario that leads to the poorest outcomes (GFDL ssp585) generally keeps the stock above the threshold of 20 % of unfished spawning biomass under most climate scenarios and also achieves long-term profits at or greater than those expected in the next ten years.
英文关键词	Fisheries assessment; Climate change; Economics; Integrated analysis; Management; Uncertainty
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Fisheries
WOS类目	Fisheries
WOS记录号	WOS:001173309600001
来源期刊	FISHERIES RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/304848
作者单位	University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Punt, Andre E.,Dalton, Michael G.,Adams, Grant D.,et al. Capturing uncertainty when modelling environmental drivers of fish populations, with an illustrative application to Pacific Cod in the eastern Bering Sea[J],2024,272.
APA	Punt, Andre E..,Dalton, Michael G..,Adams, Grant D..,Barbeaux, Steven J..,Cheng, Wei.,...&Rovellini, Alberto.(2024).Capturing uncertainty when modelling environmental drivers of fish populations, with an illustrative application to Pacific Cod in the eastern Bering Sea.FISHERIES RESEARCH,272.
MLA	Punt, Andre E.,et al."Capturing uncertainty when modelling environmental drivers of fish populations, with an illustrative application to Pacific Cod in the eastern Bering Sea".FISHERIES RESEARCH 272(2024).