气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Characteristics of Dry and Wet Changes and Future Trends in the Tarim River Basin Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/w16060880
	Characteristics of Dry and Wet Changes and Future Trends in the Tarim River Basin Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
	Li, Yansong; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Yapeng; Duan, Weili; Wang, Jiayou; Wang, Xu
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4441
起始页码	16
结束页码	6
卷号	16 期号:6
英文摘要	Global changes in drought and wetness and their future trends in arid regions have recently become a major focus of research attention. The Tarim River Basin (TRB) in Xinjiang, China, is among the most climate-sensitive regions in the world. This study uses data from the past 60 years (1962-2021) to analyze the spatial and temporal features of drought and wetness conditions in the TRB, calculating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Trend detection for SPEI is performed using the BEAST mutation test, identification of drought events using the theory of operations, and spatial and temporal analyses of dry and wet changes using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition. Additionally, the CMIP6 dataset is used to estimate future changes. The study results indicate the following: (1) From 1962 to 1998, the TRB exhibited a warm and wet trend that suddenly shifted from wet-to-dry in 1998 and subsequently transitioned to a pronounced warm and dry trend. (2) After the wet-to-dry shift, the frequency of drought events noticeably increased. The northern section of the basin witnessed more frequent drought events, albeit with lower severity, while the southern part had fewer occurrences but with higher severity. The spatial distribution of drought event frequency and severity is inconsistent. (3) The EOF decomposition results for SPEI-variable fields at 1-, 3-, and 6-month time scales show that the cumulative variance contribution rate of the first three principal spatial modal feature vectors exceeds 70%. The spatial distribution of the modes includes a consistent pattern across the entire basin, a north-south opposite pattern, and an east-west opposite pattern. (4) The future trend of drought in the TRB is expected to intensify, manifesting a spatial pattern characterized by dryness in the middle of the basin and wetness around the periphery. These research findings can provide support for decisions addressing regional drought risks.
英文关键词	drought and wetness changes; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI); spatial modalities; causal analysis; future trends; Tarim River Basin
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001192727900001
来源期刊	WATER
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/304669
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Yansong,Chen, Yaning,Chen, Yapeng,et al. Characteristics of Dry and Wet Changes and Future Trends in the Tarim River Basin Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index[J],2024,16(6).
APA	Li, Yansong,Chen, Yaning,Chen, Yapeng,Duan, Weili,Wang, Jiayou,&Wang, Xu.(2024).Characteristics of Dry and Wet Changes and Future Trends in the Tarim River Basin Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index.WATER,16(6).
MLA	Li, Yansong,et al."Characteristics of Dry and Wet Changes and Future Trends in the Tarim River Basin Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index".WATER 16.6(2024).