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| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171307 |
| Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0048-9697 |
| EISSN | 1879-1026 |
| 起始页码 | 922 |
| 卷号 | 922 |
| 英文摘要 | Desert dust is currently recognized as a health risk factor. Therefore, the World Health Organization (WHO) is actively promoting the establishment of early warning systems for sand and dust storms. This study introduces a methodology to estimate the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring in eight different regions of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. In each region, a multilinear regression model was developed to calculate daily probabilities of dust events using three thermodynamic variables (geopotential thickness in the 1000-500 hPa layer, mean potential temperature between 925 and 700 hPa, and temperature anomalies at 850 hPa) as assessment parameters. All days with African dust transport over each study region were identified in the period 2001-2021 using a proven procedure. This information was then utilized to establish a functional relationship between the values of the thermodynamic parameters and the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring. The validation of this methodology involved comparing the daily probabilities of dust events generated by the models in 2001-2021 with the daily African dust contributions to PM10 regional background levels in each region. On average, daily dust contributions increased proportionally with the increase in daily probabilities, reaching zero for days with low probabilities. Furthermore, a well-defined seasonal evolution of probability values was observed in all regions, with the highest values in the summer months and the lowest in the winter period, ensuring the physical relevance of the models' results. Finally, upward trends were observed in all regions for the three thermodynamic parameters over 1940-2021. Thus, the probability of dust events development also increased in this period. It demonstrates that the aggravation of warm conditions in southern Europe in the last decades, have modified the frequency of North -African dust outbreaks over the western Mediterranean basin. |
| 英文关键词 | Air pollution; Desert dust; Atmospheric thermodynamics; Multilinear statistical models; Risk analysis; Trend analysis |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001219181100001 |
| 来源期刊 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/304434 |
| 作者单位 | Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales Tecnologicas; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Centro de Investigacion y Desarrollo Pascual Vila (CID-CSIC); CSIC - Instituto de Diagnostico Ambiental y Estudios del Agua (IDAEA) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters[J],2024,922. |
| APA | (2024).Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,922. |
| MLA | "Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 922(2024). |
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