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| DOI | 10.1111/jbi.14831 |
| Going back for the future: Incorporating Pleistocene fossil records of saiga antelope into habitat suitability models | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0305-0270 |
| EISSN | 1365-2699 |
| 英文摘要 | AimMany species have suffered anthropogenic range contraction and no longer occupy all available suitable environmental conditions. This is particularly problematic for the construction of habitat suitability models (HSMs), which assume that a species' contemporary range reflects its full species-environment relationship. HSMs therefore risk underestimating suitable environment areas, and misinforming conservation decisions. Incorporating historic (centuries-old) records partly reduces this bias, but even these records are also subject to human disturbance. We incorporated fossil records of the critically endangered saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica, L., 1776), alongside historic and current records, into current and future habitat suitability models. Saiga has experienced drastic range contraction and may have a truncated species-environment relationship. The results allowed us to test whether its current habitat provides optimal environmental conditions, or whether saiga should be considered a refugee species.LocationNorthern Hemisphere.TaxonSaiga tatarica (Bovidae, Artiodactyla).MethodsWe collated historic and fossil saiga occurrence records from published literature, museum archives and global databases. Modern occurrence records were obtained from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment. Four bioclimatic variables were downloaded from . HSMs were generated through Maxent, using the maxnet package in R. Three HSMs were developed: present only, present historic and present fossil. Each of these models was projected onto current and two future (2070) climate change scenarios.ResultsSaiga fossil records increased the predicted suitable environment area by 783% and 1416% for current and future climate projections respectively. Our results suggest the saiga is not a refugee species but occupies only a portion of its potential environmental niche. The saiga's contemporary range is predicted environmentally suitable throughout all models and projections, and therefore in situ conservation management is recommended.Main ConclusionsThis study highlights the importance of incorporating fossil records into HSMs to better understand species-environment relationships and develop more robust conservation strategies for appropriate endangered species. |
| 英文关键词 | conservation palaeobiology; habitat suitability; niche truncation; Pleistocene fossils; Saiga tatarica; species distribution model |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography |
| WOS类目 | Ecology ; Geography, Physical |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001179970200001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/304145 |
| 作者单位 | University of London; Royal Holloway University London; University of Sussex; University of London; Royal Holloway University London |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Going back for the future: Incorporating Pleistocene fossil records of saiga antelope into habitat suitability models[J],2024. |
| APA | (2024).Going back for the future: Incorporating Pleistocene fossil records of saiga antelope into habitat suitability models.JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY. |
| MLA | "Going back for the future: Incorporating Pleistocene fossil records of saiga antelope into habitat suitability models".JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY (2024). |
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