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| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3bd2 |
| Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 1748-9326 |
| 起始页码 | 19 |
| 结束页码 | 5 |
| 卷号 | 19期号:5 |
| 英文摘要 | South Africa (SA) is highly vulnerable to the effects of drought on the environment, economy, and society. However, its effect on human health remains unclear. Understanding the mortality risk associated with different types of droughts in different population groups and by specific causes would help clarify the potential mechanisms involved. The study aims to comprehensively assess the effect of droughts of varying time scales on cause-specific mortality (all; infectious and parasitic; endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic; cardiovascular; respiratory) in SA (from 2009-2016) and identify more vulnerable profiles based on sex and age. We also evaluated the urbanicity and district-level socioeconomic deprivation as potential risk modifiers. We used a two-stage time-series study design, with the weekly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated at 1, 6, 12, and 15 months of accumulation to identify droughts of different duration (SPEI1, 6, 12, 15, respectively). We applied a quasi-Poisson regression adjusted by mean temperature to assess the association between each type of drought and weekly mortality in all district municipalities of SA, and then pooled the estimates in a meta-regression model. We reported relative risks (RRs) for one unit increase of drought severity. Overall, we found a positive association between droughts (regardless the time scale) and all causes of death analyzed. The strongest associations were found for the drought events more prolonged (RR [95%CI]: 1.027 [1.018, 1.036] (SPEI1); 1.035 [1.021, 1.050] (SPEI6); 1.033 [1.008, 1.058] (SPEI12); 1.098 [1.068, 1.129] (SPEI15)) and respiratory mortality (RRs varied from 1.037 [1.021, 1.053] (SPEI1) to 1.189 [1.14, 1.241] (SPEI15)). An indication of greater vulnerability was found in younger adults for the shortest droughts, in older adults for medium-term and long-term droughts, and children for very long-term droughts. However, differences were not significant. Further evidence of the relevance of urbanicity and demographic and socioeconomic conditions as potential risk modifiers is needed. |
| 英文关键词 | drought; cause-specific mortality; vulnerability assessment; South Africa; SPEI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001204913100001 |
| 来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/304057 |
| 作者单位 | Universidade de Vigo; University of Bern; University of Bern; South African Medical Research Council; University of Johannesburg; South African Medical Research Council; University of Pretoria; University of Cape Town |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa[J],2024,19(5). |
| APA | (2024).Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(5). |
| MLA | "Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.5(2024). |
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