气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern US power system

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DOI	10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122977
	Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern US power system
	Shuai, Hang; Li, Fangxing; Zhu, Jinxiang; Tingen Ii, William Jerome; Mukherjee, Srijib
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0306-2619
EISSN	1872-9118
起始页码	363
卷号	363
英文摘要	Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation's energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro -climatic systems. This paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant -level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real -world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at -risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once - through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.
英文关键词	Power system resilience; Drought; Generating capacity; Extreme weather; Climate change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
WOS类目	Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical
WOS记录号	WOS:001222705800001
来源期刊	APPLIED ENERGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/304048
作者单位	University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Oak Ridge National Laboratory
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shuai, Hang,Li, Fangxing,Zhu, Jinxiang,et al. Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern US power system[J],2024,363.
APA	Shuai, Hang,Li, Fangxing,Zhu, Jinxiang,Tingen Ii, William Jerome,&Mukherjee, Srijib.(2024).Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern US power system.APPLIED ENERGY,363.
MLA	Shuai, Hang,et al."Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern US power system".APPLIED ENERGY 363(2024).