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| DOI | 10.3390/land13040561 |
| Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2073-445X |
| 起始页码 | 13 |
| 结束页码 | 4 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:4 |
| 英文摘要 | In recent years, global climate change and human alterations to land use have led to a decrease in ecosystem services, making ecosystems more vulnerable. However, unlike the well-established risk assessment frameworks used in natural disaster research, the concept of ecological risks arising from changes in land use is still in its early stages, with its nuances and assessment methodologies yet to be clearly defined. This study proposes a new framework for assessing ecological risks resulting from changes in land use in the Tarim River Basin. The framework employs a coupled PLUS and Invest model to evaluate the ecological risks of land use change under three development scenarios projected for the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang by 2035. The findings indicate that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the predominant land use types in the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang were primarily unused land, followed by grassland and cropland. Conversely, grassland, water, and construction land were relatively less prevalent. During this period, the area of unused land and cultivated land increased, while grassland, forest land, and water exhibited a declining trend. Moving forward, under the three scenarios from 2020 to 2035, land use changes in the study area are characterized by the expansion of cropland and unused land, coupled with a significant decrease in grassland area, while other land categories demonstrate minor fluctuations. (2) From 2020 to 2035, across various scenarios, the total ecosystem service within the study area demonstrates an overall increasing trend in both the northern and southern marginal zones. Specifically, under the baseline scenario, the total amount of ecosystem services in the study area decreased by 15.247% compared to 2020. Similarly, under the economic development scenario, this decrease amounted to 13.358% compared to 2020. Conversely, under the ecological protection scenario, the decrease reached 19.852% compared to 2020. (3) The structure of ecological risk levels from 2020 to 2035, across multiple scenarios, demonstrates a consistent pattern, characterized by a predominant proportion of moderate risk. Conversely, other risk levels occupy relatively smaller proportions of the area. |
| 英文关键词 | land use change; ecological risk; ecosystem services; PLUS model; Invest model; Tarim River Basin; China |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Studies |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001210129600001 |
| 来源期刊 | LAND
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303913 |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Anhui University of Science & Technology; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China[J],2024,13(4). |
| APA | (2024).Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China.LAND,13(4). |
| MLA | "Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China".LAND 13.4(2024). |
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