气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Discrepancies in methodologies to determine chill requirements in temperate fruit trees constrain guidelines for future plantings in a global warming context

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DOI	10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109970
	Discrepancies in methodologies to determine chill requirements in temperate fruit trees constrain guidelines for future plantings in a global warming context
	Delgado, Alvaro; Egea, Jose A.; Fernandez, Eduardo; Campoy, Jose Antonio; Egea, Jose; Dicenta, Federico; Ruiz, David
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0168-1923
EISSN	1873-2240
起始页码	349
卷号	349
英文摘要	Temperate fruit trees enter a dormant state and resume growth development once cultivar-specific chill requirements (CR) are fulfilled. Sustainable fruit production requires crucial knowledge of the CR of the varieties to predict the adaptability of crops to future climate conditions. Experimental methodologies based on exposing shoots to forcing conditions, and statistical methods based on analysing long-term phenology records, such as Partial Least Square regression (PLS), are commonly used to estimate CR. To demonstrate the importance of unifying methodologies, we compared CR estimations from six approaches that included bud weight increase (30 % and 50 %), different percentages of bud break (30 %, 50 % and 90 %) after forcing conditions, and PLS regression. The CR of four almond and four apricot cultivars were experimentally and statistically determined in Murcia, South-Eastern Spain. Comparisons between approaches revealed that the choice of the method had a significant effect on the estimates. Large variation in CR estimates was found between PLS regression and the experimental methodologies in some late-flowering cultivars. To assess the adaptation potential of a certain cultivar to future climate conditions based on the CR estimates obtained through the different methodologies, we compared the probability of fulfilling cultivar-specific CR's under two global warming scenarios. Projections revealed a marked decreasing trend of chill availability in the region, which is already threatening the cultivation of genotypes with high CR. This study demonstrates that the variability of methodologies used to quantify CR has an important impact on assessing the probability of a successful adaptation. CR obtained by a certain methodology suggest that insufficient chill might be an increasingly common situation for some cultivars, potentially resulting in production risks. Conversely, other methodologies appear to indicate a more favourable performance for the same cultivar. Implementing standardized methods and metrics is essential to ensure more reliable information regarding the prospects for future crop adaptation.
英文关键词	Almond; Apricot; PLS regression; Forcing experiments; Climate projections; Adaptation potential
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001219194700001
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303885
作者单位	Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Centro de Edafologia y Biologia Aplicada del Segura (CEBAS); Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Delgado, Alvaro,Egea, Jose A.,Fernandez, Eduardo,et al. Discrepancies in methodologies to determine chill requirements in temperate fruit trees constrain guidelines for future plantings in a global warming context[J],2024,349.
APA	Delgado, Alvaro.,Egea, Jose A..,Fernandez, Eduardo.,Campoy, Jose Antonio.,Egea, Jose.,...&Ruiz, David.(2024).Discrepancies in methodologies to determine chill requirements in temperate fruit trees constrain guidelines for future plantings in a global warming context.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,349.
MLA	Delgado, Alvaro,et al."Discrepancies in methodologies to determine chill requirements in temperate fruit trees constrain guidelines for future plantings in a global warming context".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 349(2024).