气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Agricultural drought severity in NE Italy: Variability, bias, and future scenarios

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DOI	10.1016/j.iswcr.2023.07.003
	Agricultural drought severity in NE Italy: Variability, bias, and future scenarios
	Sofia, Giulia; Zaccone, Claudio; Tarolli, Paolo
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2095-6339
EISSN	2589-059X
起始页码	12
结束页码	2
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	This study investigated the variability of agricultural drought severity, as depicted by vegetation indices, and the bias in identifying drought events when considering a stationary vs nonstationary climate reference. The work leveraged gridded climate data (NCEP CFSv2, CHIRPS 1981-2022), soil properties (OpenLandMap), satellite imagery (Sentinel2/Landsat, 2000-2022), and future climate projections (NEXGDDP, 2050) together with local knowledge of selected farms, to augment drought monitoring techniques and identify potential issues for agriculture. For the study domain, significant differences were observed when comparing drought characteristics using stationary and nonstationary drought indexes, with biases being not ubiquitous in either space or time of year. When developing sustainable drought mitigation and adaptation strategies, decision-makers should carefully address this uncertainty to avoid a possible underestimation of drought magnitude. Results showed a drought increase (-50%) by the mid and late twenty-first century. Projection of future climate highlighted an even more significant impact (-80%) with a wide variability of risk across the domain. As drought impact was also related to soil organic carbon (SOC), our results suggest that improving SOC content could be a sustainable strategy for enhancing soil drought resilience, especially in areas commonly characterized by low concentrations of organic carbon and nutrients. The analysis highlighted that drought impacts were also modulated by investment in irrigation infrastructure and irrigation efficiency. Researchers and land managers could apply the proposed analysis design to address historical, current and future indicators of vegetation conditions within irrigated regions. By providing spatio-temporal information on the patterns of drought impacts and their bias, this study supports identifying priority regions for targeted drought risk reduction and adaptation options, including water resources and soil management sustainability criteria, to move towards more resilient agricultural systems. (c) 2023 International Research and Training Center on Erosion and Sedimentation, China Water and Power Press, and China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY
英文关键词	Climate impacts; Soil organic matter; Water management; Agricultural systems; Remote sensing
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Agriculture ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Soil Science ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001225665300001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303864
作者单位	University of Padua; University of Verona
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sofia, Giulia,Zaccone, Claudio,Tarolli, Paolo. Agricultural drought severity in NE Italy: Variability, bias, and future scenarios[J],2024,12(2).
APA	Sofia, Giulia,Zaccone, Claudio,&Tarolli, Paolo.(2024).Agricultural drought severity in NE Italy: Variability, bias, and future scenarios.INTERNATIONAL SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION RESEARCH,12(2).
MLA	Sofia, Giulia,et al."Agricultural drought severity in NE Italy: Variability, bias, and future scenarios".INTERNATIONAL SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION RESEARCH 12.2(2024).