气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The dry sky: future scenarios for humanity's modification of the atmospheric water cycle

CCPortal

DOI	10.1017/sus.2024.9
	The dry sky: future scenarios for humanity's modification of the atmospheric water cycle
	Keys, Patrick W.; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Moore, Michele-Lee; Pranindita, Agnes; Stenzel, Fabian; Varis, Olli; Warrier, Rekha; Wong, R. Bin; D'Odorico, Paolo; Folke, Carl
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2059-4798
起始页码	7
卷号	7
英文摘要	Non-Technical Summary Human societies are changing where and how water flows through the atmosphere. However, these changes in the atmospheric water cycle are not being managed, nor is there any real sense of where these changes might be headed in the future. Thus, we develop a new economic theory of atmospheric water management, and explore this theory using creative story-based scenarios. These scenarios reveal surprising possibilities for the future of atmospheric water management, ranging from a stock market for transpiration to on-demand weather. We discuss these story-based futures in the context of research and policy priorities in the present day. Technical Summary Humanity is modifying the atmospheric water cycle, via land use, climate change, air pollution, and weather modification. Historically, atmospheric water was implicitly considered a 'public good' since it was neither actively consumed nor controlled. However, given anthropogenic changes, atmospheric water can become a 'common-pool' good (consumable) or a 'club' good (controllable). Moreover, advancements in weather modification presage water becoming a 'private' good, meaning both consumable and controllable. Given the implications, we designed a theoretical framing of atmospheric water as an economic good and used a combination of methods in order to explore possible future scenarios based on human modifications of the atmospheric water cycle. First, a systematic literature search of scholarly abstracts was used in a computational text analysis. Second, the output of the text analysis was matched to different parts of an existing economic goods framework. Then, a group of global water experts were trained and developed story-based scenarios. The resultant scenarios serve as creative investigations of the future of human modification of the atmospheric water cycle. We discuss how the scenarios can enhance anticipatory capacity in the context of both future research frontiers and potential policy pathways including transboundary governance, finance, and resource management. Social Media Summary Story-based scenarios reveal novel future pathways for the management of the atmospheric water cycle.
英文关键词	Earth systems (land; water and atmospheric); economics; ecosystem services; policies; politics and governance; water security
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:001193226900001
来源期刊	GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303665
作者单位	Colorado State University; Stockholm University; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Aalto University; Colorado State University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Keys, Patrick W.,Wang-Erlandsson, Lan,Moore, Michele-Lee,et al. The dry sky: future scenarios for humanity's modification of the atmospheric water cycle[J],2024,7.
APA	Keys, Patrick W..,Wang-Erlandsson, Lan.,Moore, Michele-Lee.,Pranindita, Agnes.,Stenzel, Fabian.,...&Folke, Carl.(2024).The dry sky: future scenarios for humanity's modification of the atmospheric water cycle.GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY,7.
MLA	Keys, Patrick W.,et al."The dry sky: future scenarios for humanity's modification of the atmospheric water cycle".GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY 7(2024).