气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatial-temporal assessment of future extreme precipitation and extreme high-temperature exposure across China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/joc.8452
	Spatial-temporal assessment of future extreme precipitation and extreme high-temperature exposure across China
	Jin, Ke; Wu, Yanjuan; Sun, Xiaolin; Sun, Yanwei; Gao, Chao
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
起始页码	44
结束页码	7
卷号	44 期号:7
英文摘要	This study utilizes climate scenario data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and population gridded data from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to identify extreme precipitation and high-temperature events, along with their impact on the population in China and its subregions for both the near-term future (2020-2050) and the long-term future (2070-2100). The precipitation and temperature extremes in China are expected to increase during 2020-2100, and they will increase continuously with increasing radiative forcing. The spatial pattern of increases is similar across all SSPs-RCPs scenarios, with a larger rise in the southern study area. Population exposure to extreme precipitation in China is anticipated to rise from 2020 to 2050 and decline from 2070 to 2100 under all scenarios, with a more pronounced decrease in SSP4-6.0, and there is a transmutation in the chief determinant of populace vulnerability to extreme precipitation, transitioning from factors contingent upon population to those contingent upon climate from 2020-2050 to 2070-2100. In addition, temperature exhibits a general increasing trend in the impact area and population exposure from 2020-2050 to 2070-2100, concentrated in eastern and southern China. The exposed population's high-value areas will continually expand with rising radiation forcing. Factors influencing population exposure to extremely high temperatures from 2020 to 2100, including climate, population, and their interaction, exhibit stable contribution rates, with population remaining the dominant factor. By employing China and its subregions as a case study, we explore the spatiotemporal attributes of forthcoming instances of extreme precipitation and elevated temperature events. China is envisaged to confront an escalation in both the frequency and severity of extreme events due to climatic shifts. The geographical dispersion of the populace exposed to extreme events significantly overlaps with densely populated sectors in China, particularly within its eastern and southern expanses, thereby amplifying susceptibility to impending extreme occurrences. The chief determinant of populace vulnerability to extreme precipitation transitions from factors contingent upon the population to those contingent upon climate as time progresses. image
英文关键词	China; climate change; extreme high temperature; extreme precipitation; population exposure
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001200797000001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303659
作者单位	Ningbo University; Ningbo University; Ningbo University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jin, Ke,Wu, Yanjuan,Sun, Xiaolin,et al. Spatial-temporal assessment of future extreme precipitation and extreme high-temperature exposure across China[J],2024,44(7).
APA	Jin, Ke,Wu, Yanjuan,Sun, Xiaolin,Sun, Yanwei,&Gao, Chao.(2024).Spatial-temporal assessment of future extreme precipitation and extreme high-temperature exposure across China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,44(7).
MLA	Jin, Ke,et al."Spatial-temporal assessment of future extreme precipitation and extreme high-temperature exposure across China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 44.7(2024).