气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A copula-based model to describe the uncertainty of overtopping variables on mound breakwaters

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104483
	A copula-based model to describe the uncertainty of overtopping variables on mound breakwaters
	Mares-Nasarre, Patricia; van Gent, Marcel R. A.; Morales-Napoles, Oswaldo
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0378-3839
EISSN	1872-7379
起始页码	189
卷号	189
英文摘要	Rising sea levels caused by climate change are increasing the risk of overtopping on coastal structures. Moreover, there is a growing societal concern about the visual impact of these structures, which leads to the lowering of their crest freeboards. In previous studies, safety during overtopping events was assessed considering the overtopping layer thickness (hc), the overtopping flow velocity (uc) and the individual wave overtopping volume (V). Existing models in the literature to estimate hc, uc and V on mound breakwater crests are mainly deterministic, involve a chain of successive estimations leading to accumulated errors and/or do not account for the dependencies between hc, uc and V. This study proposes a model to describe the joint probability distribution of hc, uc and V based on bivariate copulas. Experimental data from small-scale 2D physical tests conducted on mound breakwaters with three armor layers (single -layer Cubipod (R), and doublelayer cubes and rocks) in depth -limited breaking wave conditions on two mild bottom slopes and dimensionless crest freeboards between 0.33 and 3.20 is used. Lognormal distribution functions are proposed for each variable and a multivariate dependence model is developed through a one -tree vine -copula. The parameters of this model are quantified directly using wave characteristics and the structure geometry minimizing the accumulated errors in the final predictions. The application of the model is illustrated by computing the probability of not fulfilling at least a tolerability limit for one of the studied variables (OR probability). The OR probability is computed both considering the dependence and assuming independence between the variables and a significant difference is obtained. It is concluded that by accounting for the multivariate dependence between the variables, it is possible to reduce the crest freeboard and, thus, achieve a more economic design within the required safety level.
英文关键词	Overtopping; Overtopping layer thickness; Overtopping flow velocity; Overtopping volume; Uncertainty; Copula; Mound breakwater; Probability; Dependence
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Engineering, Ocean
WOS记录号	WOS:001186748400001
来源期刊	COASTAL ENGINEERING
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303501
作者单位	Delft University of Technology; Deltares
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mares-Nasarre, Patricia,van Gent, Marcel R. A.,Morales-Napoles, Oswaldo. A copula-based model to describe the uncertainty of overtopping variables on mound breakwaters[J],2024,189.
APA	Mares-Nasarre, Patricia,van Gent, Marcel R. A.,&Morales-Napoles, Oswaldo.(2024).A copula-based model to describe the uncertainty of overtopping variables on mound breakwaters.COASTAL ENGINEERING,189.
MLA	Mares-Nasarre, Patricia,et al."A copula-based model to describe the uncertainty of overtopping variables on mound breakwaters".COASTAL ENGINEERING 189(2024).