气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Key indicators for Pre-Warning risks associated with urbanization in China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112032
	Key indicators for Pre-Warning risks associated with urbanization in China
	Wu, Yutong; Peng, Chong; Peng, Zhongren
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
起始页码	162
卷号	162
英文摘要	China has focused on pre-warning risks in its national policies, under the pressure of increasing risks associated with urbanization. While developing restrictive indicators assists the government in risk management, tracking the risks associated with urbanization and identifying their critical points remains relatively rare. We addressed this gap by presenting a general framework to quantify the potential risks of urbanization. Within this framework, early warning indicators were selected from four risk dimensions associated with urbanization in China, which include population development, economic growth, resource sustainability, and environmental protection. We then analyzed the historical characteristics of these indicators from 1980 to 2020 using the HodrickPrescott (HP) filter method and predicted the trend from 2021 to 2030 using the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The findings were as follows: (1) A complete cycle was observed for most indicators within 10 years, and cyclical fluctuations were sensitive to changes in national policies and the external environment, with tipping points after 1-2 years. (2) Certain indicators showed risk warning signals in the next cycle, including total fertility rate, urban unemployment rate, and urban water consumption. The prediction results of these indicators provided thresholds for policy intervention. (3) As indicated by the warning signals, negative population growth, rising unemployment, and the gap between supply and demand of water resources were the main risk factors for urbanization in China. Some policy suggestions were provided for risk response, including dealing with women's job security and work-life balance, ensuring employment opportunities for vulnerable groups, accelerating the upgrading of the tertiary industry to expand domestic market demand, and strictly controlling the consumption of limited resources. These results present contribute to the formulation of national urbanization policies and development plans.
英文关键词	Risks associated with urbanization; Early warning indicator; Prediction; Threshold; Policy instrument
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001227408500001
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303419
作者单位	Huazhong University of Science & Technology; State University System of Florida; University of Florida; Ajman University; Huazhong University of Science & Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Yutong,Peng, Chong,Peng, Zhongren. Key indicators for Pre-Warning risks associated with urbanization in China[J],2024,162.
APA	Wu, Yutong,Peng, Chong,&Peng, Zhongren.(2024).Key indicators for Pre-Warning risks associated with urbanization in China.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,162.
MLA	Wu, Yutong,et al."Key indicators for Pre-Warning risks associated with urbanization in China".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 162(2024).