气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland

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DOI	10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024
	Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland
	Marcer, Marco; Duvillard, Pierre-Allain; Tomaskovicova, Sona; Nielsen, Steffen Ringso; Revil, Andre; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1994-0416
EISSN	1994-0424
起始页码	18
结束页码	4
卷号	18 期号:4
英文摘要	Degrading rock wall permafrost was found responsible for the increase in rockfall and landslide activity in several cold mountain regions across the globe. In Greenland, rock wall permafrost has so far received little attention from the scientific community, despite mountains being a predominant feature on the ice-free coastline and landslide activity being significant. In this study, we aim to make a first step towards a better understanding of rock wall permafrost in Greenland by modelling rock wall temperatures in the mountain area around the town of Sisimiut, which is 68 degrees N on the west coast of Greenland. We first acquire rock surface temperature (RST) data for the period September 2020-September 2022 to model rock surface temperatures from weather forcing. The model is then applied to weather data from 1870 to 2022, generating rock surface temperatures to force transient heat transfer simulations over the same period. By extrapolating this method at the landscape scale, we obtain permafrost distribution maps and ad hoc simulations for complex topographies. Our model results are compared to temperature data from two lowland boreholes (100 m depth) and geophysical data describing frozen and unfrozen conditions across a mid-elevation mountain ridge. Finally, we use regional carbon pathway scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 to evaluate future evolution of rock wall temperatures until the end of the 21st century. Our data and simulation describe discontinuous permafrost distribution in rock walls up to roughly 400 m a.s.l. Future scenarios suggest a decline of deep frozen bodies up to 800 m a.s.l., i.e. the highest summits in the area. In summary, this study depicts a picture of warm permafrost in this area, highlighting its sensitivity to ongoing climate change.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS类目	Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001202158700001
来源期刊	CRYOSPHERE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303190
作者单位	Technical University of Denmark; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute of Ecology & Environment (INEE); Universite Savoie Mont Blanc; Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marcer, Marco,Duvillard, Pierre-Allain,Tomaskovicova, Sona,et al. Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland[J],2024,18(4).
APA	Marcer, Marco,Duvillard, Pierre-Allain,Tomaskovicova, Sona,Nielsen, Steffen Ringso,Revil, Andre,&Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas.(2024).Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland.CRYOSPHERE,18(4).
MLA	Marcer, Marco,et al."Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland".CRYOSPHERE 18.4(2024).