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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171167
	Increasing risk of synchronous floods in the Yangtze River basin from the shift in flood timing
	Xu, Yating; Fang, Jian; Tao, Kai; Fang, Jiayi; Liu, Yuxin
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
起始页码	921
卷号	921
英文摘要	Floods are some of the most frequent and severe natural hazards worldwide. In the context of climate change, the risk of extreme floods is expected to increase in the future. While, the trends in flood timing and risk for flood synchronization remain unclear. In this study, the seasonality of flood peaks, annual maximum rainfall, and annual maximum soil moisture in the Yangtze River Basin were examined using observational and reanalysis data from 1949 to 2020. Changes in the timing of extreme events may increase the possibility of concurrent flooding, therefore the risk for synchronous floods were further explored. The results indicate that the seasonality of floods has a strong consistency with that of annual maximum rainfall. In the southern Yangtze River Basin, floods usually occur between early June and early July, with a delayed trend. However, they occur slightly later in the north, generally from late July to early August, with a tendency of advance. Overall, the timing of floods is positively correlated with rainfall and soil moisture peaks, and the correlation is much stronger for annual maximum rainfall. However, for more intense floods or for larger catchments, soil moisture plays an important role in modulating the variations in flood timing. Reverse latitudinal changes in flood timing are expected to result in more synchronous floods. The synchrony frequency exceeded 60 % for most of the stations, and the frequency was increasing for nearly half of the region, especially in the middle reaches, Poyang Lake and south of Dongting Lake. In addition, the flood synchrony scale in the south of the basin showed significant upward trends. These findings would provide important implications for flood risk management and adaptive strategy development.
英文关键词	Yangtze River basin; Flood seasonality; Spatial -temporal variation; Synchronous flood
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001196607200001
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303144
作者单位	Central China Normal University; Central China Normal University; Beijing Normal University; Hangzhou Normal University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Yating,Fang, Jian,Tao, Kai,et al. Increasing risk of synchronous floods in the Yangtze River basin from the shift in flood timing[J],2024,921.
APA	Xu, Yating,Fang, Jian,Tao, Kai,Fang, Jiayi,&Liu, Yuxin.(2024).Increasing risk of synchronous floods in the Yangtze River basin from the shift in flood timing.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,921.
MLA	Xu, Yating,et al."Increasing risk of synchronous floods in the Yangtze River basin from the shift in flood timing".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 921(2024).