气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying effects of changes in forest age distribution on the landslide frequency in Japan

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-024-06537-w
	Quantifying effects of changes in forest age distribution on the landslide frequency in Japan
	Lusiana, Novia; Shinohara, Yoshinori; Imaizumi, Fumitoshi
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
英文摘要	Landslides are destructive natural disasters that cause human and economic losses. Although many studies report the effects of forest age on landslide susceptibility, especially for shallow landslides, no studies have examined the effects at a national scale. We assumed that temporal variations in the annual number of rainfall-triggered landslides in Japan were determined by variations in rainfall and forest age distribution. By this assumption, this study aimed to quantify the decrease in the frequency of rainfall-induced landslides owing to the increasing maturity of forests in Japan. Data were collated from 21 studies covering 11 sites in three countries that reported a landslide susceptibility index (i.e., frequency ratio or landslide density) and the relation between forest age and the normalized landslide susceptibility index (NLSI) was modeled. Using this relation and the area for each forest age class, the change in landslide susceptibility at a national scale (NLSIJpn) was quantified during 1966-2017. The authors developed generalized linear models (GLMs) using the annual number of landslides as the response variable and the NLSIJpn and a rainfall index for each year as the explanatory variables. The number of rainfall-induced landslides was simulated in the GLMs in 15 scenarios with different forest age distributions and rainfall amounts. The number of landslides in young-age-dominated and middle-age-dominated forests was estimated to be 2.4 and 1.1 times, respectively, that in mature-age-dominated forests. The change in the number of landslides from young-age-dominated to mature-age-dominated forests was larger than that from an increase in the rainfall amount of 20%. We conclude that increasing the maturity of forests greatly reduces landslide frequency in Japan. In a changing climate with potentially threatening increases in rainfall, preserving mature forests is important to avoid amplifying landslide susceptibility on a national scale.
英文关键词	Climate change; Forest age distribution; Landslide susceptibility; National scale
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001205420200001
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303118
作者单位	University of Miyazaki; Brawijaya University; University of Miyazaki; Shizuoka University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lusiana, Novia,Shinohara, Yoshinori,Imaizumi, Fumitoshi. Quantifying effects of changes in forest age distribution on the landslide frequency in Japan[J],2024.
APA	Lusiana, Novia,Shinohara, Yoshinori,&Imaizumi, Fumitoshi.(2024).Quantifying effects of changes in forest age distribution on the landslide frequency in Japan.NATURAL HAZARDS.
MLA	Lusiana, Novia,et al."Quantifying effects of changes in forest age distribution on the landslide frequency in Japan".NATURAL HAZARDS (2024).