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| DOI | 10.1016/j.rsma.2024.103398 |
| Regime change in northwest Atlantic sea surface temperatures revealed using a quantile approach | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 2352-4855 |
| 起始页码 | 71 |
| 卷号 | 71 |
| 英文摘要 | Trends in sea surface temperatures (SST) of the US Northeast Continental Shelf and the adjacent Slope Sea were analyzed using a quantile approach. SST through the period 1982-2021 were analyzed for change in annual mean and range. In addition, the mean of each 25% quantile of the data by year was calculated. Using the full time series, the climatological SSTs at each quantile was determined, which in turn were used with the annual data to determine the number of days temperature fell within the limits of each climatological quantile. The time series of the data parameters were summarized by grid location and for a series of representative index areas. The index areas were analyzed for evidence of change points or regime shifts using the STARS (Sequential T-test Analysis of Regime Shifts) algorithm. The widely reported SST warming in this region was reinforced with our analysis; our findings also revealed new aspects of the change of thermal conditions in important ways. Mean annual temperature trended at approximately 0.36 degree celsius per decade; however, warm quantile SSTs increased by more than 1.25 degree celsius per decade in the Slope Sea, representing a five degree increase over the study period. The change point analysis suggested the change in thermal regime began as early as 2005 or 2007 with the study region fully enveloped by regime change by 2012. A previously identified change point in 1999 appears to be related to the duration of warming as opposed to SST levels. Mean SST alone does not capture the nature of high temperature exposure for living marine species in the study area; these regions may be experiencing a month or more of stressfully higher SST. The thermal effects derived using the quantile approach suggest different types of thermal exposures compared to heat wave analyses, especially related to cumulative exposure. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate change; Sea surface temperature; Regime shift; Quantile; Fisheries |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology |
| WOS类目 | Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001188979700001 |
| 来源期刊 | REGIONAL STUDIES IN MARINE SCIENCE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/303023 |
| 作者单位 | National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Princeton University; University of Rhode Island; University of Maine System; University of Maine Orono; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; University of Massachusetts System; University Massachusetts Dartmouth |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Regime change in northwest Atlantic sea surface temperatures revealed using a quantile approach[J],2024,71. |
| APA | (2024).Regime change in northwest Atlantic sea surface temperatures revealed using a quantile approach.REGIONAL STUDIES IN MARINE SCIENCE,71. |
| MLA | "Regime change in northwest Atlantic sea surface temperatures revealed using a quantile approach".REGIONAL STUDIES IN MARINE SCIENCE 71(2024). |
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