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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169668
	How much carbon storage will loss in a desertification area? Multiple policy scenario analysis from Gansu Province
	Liu, Jiamin; Pei, Xiutong; Yu, Weijie; Nan, Jiangfan; Fang, Hongwei; Wang, Kaizhong; Jiao, Jizong
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
起始页码	913
卷号	913
英文摘要	Carbon storage plays a pivotal role in addressing climate change, maintaining ecological equilibrium, and fostering sustainable development. Gansu Province, situated in the arid to semi -arid region of Northwestern China, is confronted with substantial carbon storage losses as a result of ongoing ecological land desertification processes. However, studies on carbon storage loss under various scenarios in desertified regions are seldom reported. In this study, we delineated the ecological red line using quantified indicators encompassing multiple ecosystem service functions and ecological vulnerability sensitivity. Furthermore, we projected future land use and carbon storage transformations under multiple policy scenarios employing the patch -generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. Lastly, we unveiled spatial disparities in the driving factors behind alterations in carbon storage by geographically weighted regression model. Our findings suggest that: (1) The delineated ecological red line covers an area of 11.8 x 104 km2, approximately 27 % of the total land area of Gansu Province. (2) Quantitative findings reveal that the overall accuracy of the PLUS model reached an impressive 0.975, accompanied by a Kappa coefficient of 0.964, thus affirming the model's exceptional applicability. (3) Under the base line scenario, Gansu Province's carbon storage witnesses a consistent decline from 2000 to 2050, with a substantial total loss of 1.62 x 107 t over the ensuing three decades. The ecological red line scenario, by controlling 27 % of the land area in Gansu Province, achieves a 61.7 % effect of the global ecological scenario by 2050, thus reversing the declining trend in carbon storage. (4) Natural factors primarily influence carbon storage in the southeastern region, while human activity factors are distributed in the central region. This study offers scientifically robust policy recommendations to facilitate the attainment of carbon neutrality objective.
英文关键词	Ecological red line; Multiple scenarios; Land use change; Carbon storage; Driving factors
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001154296400001
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/302632
作者单位	Lanzhou University; Lanzhou University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Jiamin,Pei, Xiutong,Yu, Weijie,et al. How much carbon storage will loss in a desertification area? Multiple policy scenario analysis from Gansu Province[J],2024,913.
APA	Liu, Jiamin.,Pei, Xiutong.,Yu, Weijie.,Nan, Jiangfan.,Fang, Hongwei.,...&Jiao, Jizong.(2024).How much carbon storage will loss in a desertification area? Multiple policy scenario analysis from Gansu Province.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,913.
MLA	Liu, Jiamin,et al."How much carbon storage will loss in a desertification area? Multiple policy scenario analysis from Gansu Province".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 913(2024).