气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ad1cb7
	Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates
	Bloomfield, H. C.; Bates, P.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Hillier, J.; Champion, A.; Cotterill, D.; Pope, J. O.; Kumar, D.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1748-9326
起始页码	19
结束页码	2
卷号	19 期号:2
英文摘要	Extreme wind is the main driver of loss in North-West Europe, with flooding being the second-highest driver. These hazards are currently modelled independently, and it is unclear what the contribution of their co-occurrence is to loss. They are often associated with extra-tropical cyclones, with studies focusing on co-occurrence of extreme meteorological variables. However, there has not been a systematic assessment of the meteorological drivers of the co-occurring impacts of compound wind-flood events. This study quantifies this using an established storm severity index (SSI) and recently developed flood severity index (FSI), applied to the UKCP18 12 km regional climate simulations, and a Great Britain (GB) focused hydrological model. The meteorological drivers are assessed using 30 weather types, which are designed to capture a broad spectrum of GB weather. Daily extreme compound events (exceeding 99th percentile of both SSI and FSI) are generally associated with cyclonic weather patterns, often from the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) and Northwesterly classifications. Extreme compound events happen in a larger variety of weather patterns in a future climate. The location of extreme precipitation events shifts southward towards regions of increased exposure. The risk of extreme compound events increases almost four-fold in the UKCP18 simulations (from 14 events in the historical period, to 55 events in the future period). It is also more likely for there to be multi-day compound events. At seasonal timescales years tend to be either flood-prone or wind-damage-prone. In a future climate there is a larger proportion of years experiencing extreme seasonal SSI and FSI totals. This could lead to increases in reinsurance losses if not factored into current modelling.
英文关键词	extreme wind; flood; storm severity index; compound event; climate change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001148700700001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/302044
作者单位	University of Bristol; University of Bristol; Newcastle University - UK; University of Reading; University of Reading; Loughborough University; Met Office - UK
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bloomfield, H. C.,Bates, P.,Shaffrey, L. C.,et al. Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates[J],2024,19(2).
APA	Bloomfield, H. C..,Bates, P..,Shaffrey, L. C..,Hillier, J..,Champion, A..,...&Kumar, D..(2024).Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(2).
MLA	Bloomfield, H. C.,et al."Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.2(2024).