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DOI	10.54302/mausam.v75i2.6229
	Applicability of seasonal forecasts from dynamical models for reservoir management practices
	Dhage, Pradnya M.; Srivastava, Ankur; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Soni, Aarti; Pradhan, Maheswar
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0252-9416
起始页码	75
结束页码	2
卷号	75 期号:2
英文摘要	Despite the availability of reliable seasonal forecasts of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), the use of dynamical models driven by these forecasts for reservoir level management is limited. Reservoir water management can specially be useful if it can be done several months in advance, in view of an impending drought/flood scenario. The applicability of seasonal forecasts from the Monsoon Mission (MM) seasonal forecast model for seasonal and monthly inflow forecasts for tropical Indian reservoirs (Mula and Kangsabati) is studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model, at a lead time of 3 months. Long-term observed inflow datasets are used for calibration and validation of SWAT -Calibration and Uncertainty Procedure (CUP) with Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI) -2 algorithm using insitumeteorological data. Observed inflows and inflow simulations are compared with simulated inflow using SWAT with same calibrated parameters, but with forcing derived from reforecasts from the MM model. The SWAT -CUP calibrated well with reasonable Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) (Mula = 0.75, Kangsabati = 0.79) and Percentage Bias (PBIAS) (Mula = -28%, Kangsabati = 17%) for both reservoirs. The skill scores for streamflow predictions vary from 0.6-0.70 during the monsoon season, indicating reasonable accuracy for these predictions. The SWAT -MM model has a reasonable skill with 0.52-0.53 NSE and 26%-40% PBIAS. Therefore, SWATMM -based model has a good potential to forecast monthly and seasonal reservoir inflow for various agro-climatic zones of India. These forecasts when used in real-time, can serve as a guideline for managing the reservoir storage and release, and hence proving to be of great socio-economic importance.
英文关键词	SWAT; Indian summer monsoon rainfall; Reservoir management; Seasonal inflow forecast; Climate forecast system
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001196659000013
来源期刊	MAUSAM
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/301599
作者单位	Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) - India; Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dhage, Pradnya M.,Srivastava, Ankur,Rao, Suryachandra A.,et al. Applicability of seasonal forecasts from dynamical models for reservoir management practices[J],2024,75(2).
APA	Dhage, Pradnya M.,Srivastava, Ankur,Rao, Suryachandra A.,Soni, Aarti,&Pradhan, Maheswar.(2024).Applicability of seasonal forecasts from dynamical models for reservoir management practices.MAUSAM,75(2).
MLA	Dhage, Pradnya M.,et al."Applicability of seasonal forecasts from dynamical models for reservoir management practices".MAUSAM 75.2(2024).