气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of Strong Earthquake Risk in Maqin-Maqu Segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, Northeast Tibet Plateau

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DOI	10.3390/app14072691
	Assessment of Strong Earthquake Risk in Maqin-Maqu Segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, Northeast Tibet Plateau
	Li, Zhengfang; Zhou, Bengang
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2076-3417
起始页码	14
结束页码	7
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	The East Kunlun Fault Zone, as a highly seismically active fault, has witnessed five earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding M7.0 to the west of Animaqing Mountain since 1900. Conversely, the historical records for the Maqin-Maqu segment in the east of Animaqing Mountain show no M7.0 or above earthquakes, designating it as a distinctive seismic gap within this fault zone. We analyzed the tectonic background and structural features of the Maqin-Maqu segment within the East Kunlun Fault Zone to evaluate its potential seismic capacity. Utilizing a new established probability recurrence model, we calculated the seismic hazard for both segments over the next 100 years. The results indicate that the probability of M7.0 or above earthquake occurring in the Maqu segment in the next 100 years is 11.47%, classified as a moderate probability event. The joint probability of at least one M7.0 or above strong earthquake occurring in the entire Maqin-Maqu segment in the next 100 years is 16.14%, also classified as a moderate probability event, while the probability for the Maqin segment alone is 5.36%, classified as a low probability event. Considering the uncertainty of the probability model, a qualitative hazard classification for each segment was further conducted. The comprehensive evaluation suggests a low risk of a major earthquake occurring in the Maqin segment in the next 100 years, while the Maqu segment is assessed to have a higher risk.
英文关键词	seismic capacity assessment; assessment of Strong Earthquake Risk; probability density function of earthquake recurrence; Maqin-Maqu segment of the Eastern Kunlun fault
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Chemistry ; Engineering ; Materials Science ; Physics
WOS类目	Chemistry, Multidisciplinary ; Engineering, Multidisciplinary ; Materials Science, Multidisciplinary ; Physics, Applied
WOS记录号	WOS:001201211700001
来源期刊	APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/301556
作者单位	China Earthquake Administration
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Zhengfang,Zhou, Bengang. Assessment of Strong Earthquake Risk in Maqin-Maqu Segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, Northeast Tibet Plateau[J],2024,14(7).
APA	Li, Zhengfang,&Zhou, Bengang.(2024).Assessment of Strong Earthquake Risk in Maqin-Maqu Segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, Northeast Tibet Plateau.APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL,14(7).
MLA	Li, Zhengfang,et al."Assessment of Strong Earthquake Risk in Maqin-Maqu Segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, Northeast Tibet Plateau".APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 14.7(2024).