气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of ERA5 and NCEP reanalysis climate models for precipitation and soil moisture over a semi-arid area in Kuwait

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-024-07141-1
	Evaluation of ERA5 and NCEP reanalysis climate models for precipitation and soil moisture over a semi-arid area in Kuwait
	Kokkalis, Panagiotis; Al Jassar, Hala K.; Al Sarraf, Hussain; Nair, Roshni; Al Hendi, Hamad
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0930-7575
EISSN	1432-0894
英文摘要	In this study, we evaluate the soil moisture and precipitation products obtained from two reanalysis models: the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study centers on Kuwait's semi-arid region, during the wet season (November to May) from 2008 to 2018. For the precipitation-related evaluation dataset, rain gauge records from the Kuwait Automatic Weather Observation System (KAWOS) were used, while the ground-truth soil moisture values were taken from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI-SM). Initially, to ensure CCI-SM reliability, we compare it with in-situ soil sensor measurements deployed at a desert site. The analysis revealed a maximum CCI-SM overestimation in winter, decreasing progressively throughout the year with 20% mean bias. The bias-corrected CCI-SM dataset is used for the comprehensive evaluation of the soil moisture reanalysis data. Accuracy metrics, such as mean bias (MB), correlation coefficient (R), and unbiased Root Mean Square Difference (ubRMSD), were used for this purpose. The results indicate that ERA5 consistently underestimates (similar to 50% MB) soil moisture, but responds well under high soil moisture conditions. NCEP mostly overestimates soil moisture by a similar magnitude, providing even twice as high values during spring months. Mean monthly precipitation (MP) is also overestimated by NCEP, particularly during extreme episodes, yet found to be reliable enough regarding annual accumulated precipitation. ERA5 has shown strong (R similar to 0.6-0.9) predictive capabilities under both frontal and convective precipitation conditions, with similar to 3% median bias for MP, making it a promising alternative data source, particularly in regions with limited weather station coverage.
英文关键词	ESA CCI; NCEP; ERA5; Soil moisture; Precipitation; Kuwait
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001184324100001
来源期刊	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/301449
作者单位	Kuwait University; American University of Kuwait
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kokkalis, Panagiotis,Al Jassar, Hala K.,Al Sarraf, Hussain,et al. Evaluation of ERA5 and NCEP reanalysis climate models for precipitation and soil moisture over a semi-arid area in Kuwait[J],2024.
APA	Kokkalis, Panagiotis,Al Jassar, Hala K.,Al Sarraf, Hussain,Nair, Roshni,&Al Hendi, Hamad.(2024).Evaluation of ERA5 and NCEP reanalysis climate models for precipitation and soil moisture over a semi-arid area in Kuwait.CLIMATE DYNAMICS.
MLA	Kokkalis, Panagiotis,et al."Evaluation of ERA5 and NCEP reanalysis climate models for precipitation and soil moisture over a semi-arid area in Kuwait".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2024).