气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird

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DOI	10.1007/s10661-024-12618-x
	Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird
	Sandretti-Silva, Giovanna; Vannucchi, Fabio Stucchi; Teixeira, Larissa; Tan, Tjui Yeuw; Mori, Gustavo Maruyama; Reinert, Bianca Luiza; Bornschein, Marcos R.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0167-6369
EISSN	1573-2959
起始页码	196
结束页码	6
卷号	196 期号:6
英文摘要	Salt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species' demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios: (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.
英文关键词	Assisted colonization; Conservation status; First-year survival; Formicivora acutirostris; Predator control
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001215647900003
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/301223
作者单位	Universidade Estadual Paulista; Wageningen University & Research; Wageningen University & Research
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sandretti-Silva, Giovanna,Vannucchi, Fabio Stucchi,Teixeira, Larissa,et al. Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird[J],2024,196(6).
APA	Sandretti-Silva, Giovanna.,Vannucchi, Fabio Stucchi.,Teixeira, Larissa.,Tan, Tjui Yeuw.,Mori, Gustavo Maruyama.,...&Bornschein, Marcos R..(2024).Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,196(6).
MLA	Sandretti-Silva, Giovanna,et al."Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 196.6(2024).