气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future Changes in the Intensity and Duration of Marine Heat and Cold Waves: Insights from Coupled Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0278.1
	Future Changes in the Intensity and Duration of Marine Heat and Cold Waves: Insights from Coupled Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles
	Deser, C. lara; Phillips, A. dam s.; Alexander, Michael; Amaya, D. illon j.; Capotondi, Ntonietta; Jacox, M. ichael g.; Scott, J. ames d.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	37
结束页码	6
卷号	37 期号:6
英文摘要	The future evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) extremes is of great concern, not only for the health of marine ecosystems and sustainability of commercial fisheries, but also for precipitation extremes fueled by moisture evaporated from the ocean. This study examines the projected influence of anthropogenic climate change on the intensity and duration of monthly SST extremes, hereafter termed marine heat waves (MHWs) and marine cold waves (MCWs), based on initial-condition large ensembles with seven Earth system models. The large number of simulations (30-100) with each model allows for robust quantification of future changes in both the mean state and variability in each model. In general, models indicate that future changes in variability will cause MHW and MCW events to intensify in the northern extratropics and weaken in the tropics and Southern Ocean, and to shorten in duration in many areas. These changes are generally symmetric between MHWs and MCWs, except for the longitude of duration change in the tropical Pacific and sign of duration change in the Arctic. Projected changes in ENSO account for a large fraction of the variability-induced changes in MHW and MCW characteristics in each model and are responsible for much of the intermodel spread as a result of differences in future ENSO behavior. The variability-related changes in MHW and MCW characteristics noted above are superimposed upon large mean-state changes. Indeed, their contribution to the total change in SST during MHW and MCW events is generally ,10% except in polar regions where they contribute upward of 50%.
英文关键词	Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Extreme events; Sea surface temperature; Climate models; Climate variability; Oceanic variability
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001170359900001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/300765
作者单位	National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Deser, C. lara,Phillips, A. dam s.,Alexander, Michael,et al. Future Changes in the Intensity and Duration of Marine Heat and Cold Waves: Insights from Coupled Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles[J],2024,37(6).
APA	Deser, C. lara.,Phillips, A. dam s..,Alexander, Michael.,Amaya, D. illon j..,Capotondi, Ntonietta.,...&Scott, J. ames d..(2024).Future Changes in the Intensity and Duration of Marine Heat and Cold Waves: Insights from Coupled Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,37(6).
MLA	Deser, C. lara,et al."Future Changes in the Intensity and Duration of Marine Heat and Cold Waves: Insights from Coupled Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 37.6(2024).