气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Moving with your mutualist: Predicted climate-induced mismatch between Proteaceae species and their avian pollinators

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DOI	10.1111/jbi.14804
	Moving with your mutualist: Predicted climate-induced mismatch between Proteaceae species and their avian pollinators
	Adedoja, Opeyemi A.; Dormann, Carsten F.; Coetzee, Anina; Geerts, Sjirk
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0305-0270
EISSN	1365-2699
起始页码	51
结束页码	6
卷号	51 期号:6
英文摘要	AimClimate change influences species distribution in space and time, but predicting the overlap in the range of interacting species under different climate scenarios remains a challenge. Here, we explore how climate change influences shifts in species ranges among mutualists.LocationCape Floristic Region (CFR), South Africa.TaxonProteaceae and Passeriformes.MethodsWe used machine-learning algorithms (random forest and boosted-regression trees) and regression model (generalized additive models) to predict range shifts of 11 bird-pollinated Proteaceae species, combined occurrence prediction of 71 bird-pollinated Proteaceae and their two most important, endemic, pollinator bird species. We determined the degree of overlap in geographical ranges of nectar-feeding birds and Proteaceae under different climate scenarios. Species ranges were projected to the years 2050 and 2070 using representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 and three global climate models.ResultsThe majority of Proteaceae species in our model are predicted to experience range contractions, which ranged from 1% under 2050 RCP 4.5 CCSM4 to 79% under 2070 RCP 8.5 CNRM-CM5 climate scenarios, leading to 55% and 62% range loss for Cape sugarbird and orange-breasted sunbird, respectively, under extreme climate scenarios. Proteaceae species are predicted to experience least overlap with nectar-feeding birds in the northern and eastern range under future climate scenarios.Main ConclusionClimate change threatens species occupying the mountain range of the northern limit and other regions of the CFR. Reduced range overlap of mutualists may have significant implications for the reproduction and persistence of Proteaceae. We suggest active monitoring of Proteaceae populations in regions where species are predicted to lose their range, particularly so for threatened species with small ranges.
英文关键词	mountain range; nectar-feeding birds; plant-pollinator interactions; range contraction; specialist pollinators; sugarbird; sunbird
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography
WOS类目	Ecology ; Geography, Physical
WOS记录号	WOS:001153357400001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/300446
作者单位	University of Central Arkansas; University of Freiburg; Nelson Mandela University; Cape Peninsula University of Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Adedoja, Opeyemi A.,Dormann, Carsten F.,Coetzee, Anina,et al. Moving with your mutualist: Predicted climate-induced mismatch between Proteaceae species and their avian pollinators[J],2024,51(6).
APA	Adedoja, Opeyemi A.,Dormann, Carsten F.,Coetzee, Anina,&Geerts, Sjirk.(2024).Moving with your mutualist: Predicted climate-induced mismatch between Proteaceae species and their avian pollinators.JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY,51(6).
MLA	Adedoja, Opeyemi A.,et al."Moving with your mutualist: Predicted climate-induced mismatch between Proteaceae species and their avian pollinators".JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY 51.6(2024).