气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2312556121
	Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation
	Wang, Yuchen; Zhang, Chutian; Gao, Jing; Chen, Ziqi; Liu, Zhao; Huang, Jianbin; Chen, Yidan; Li, Zhichao; Chang, Nan; Tao, Yuxin; Tang, Hui; Gao, Xuejie; Xu, Ying; Wang, Can; Li, Dong; Liu, Xiaobo; Pan, Jingxiang; Cai, Wenjia; Gong, Peng; Luo, Yong; Liang, Wannian; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Yang, Ruifu; Xu, Lei
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0027-8424
EISSN	1091-6490
起始页码	121
结束页码	4
卷号	121 期号:4
英文摘要	Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a zoonotic disease caused by the rodent-transmitted orthohantaviruses (HVs), with China possessing the most cases globally. The virus hosts in China are Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus, and the disease spread is strongly influenced by global climate dynamics. To assess and predict the spatiotemporal trends of HFRS from 2005 to 2098, we collected historical HFRS data in mainland China (2005-2020), historical and projected climate and population data (2005-2098), and spatial variables including biotic, environmental, topographical, and socioeconomic. Spatiotemporal predictions and mapping were conducted under 27 scenarios incorporating multiple integrated representative concentration pathway models and population scenarios. We identify the type of magistral HVs host species as the best spatial division, including four region categories. Seven extreme climate indices associated with temperature and precipitation have been pinpointed as key factors affecting the trends of HFRS. Our predictions indicate that annual HFRS cases will increase significantly in 62 of 356 cities in mainland China. Rattus regions are predicted to be the most active, surpassing Apodemus and Mixed regions. Eighty cities are identified as at severe risk level for HFRS, each with over 50 reported cases annually, including 22 new cities primarily located in East China and Rattus regions after 2020, while 6 others develop new risk. Our results suggest that the risk of HFRS will remain high through the end of this century, with Rattus norvegicus being the most active host, and that extreme climate indices are significant risk factors. Our findings can inform evidence-based policymaking regarding future risk of HFRS.
英文关键词	orthohantaviruses; climate change; forecast; hosts; spatiotemporal model
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001184423400005
来源期刊	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/300301
作者单位	Tsinghua University; Tsinghua University; Karolinska Institutet; University of Helsinki; University of Helsinki; Helsinki University Central Hospital; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Tsinghua University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS; Nanjing Medical University; Tsinghua University; University of Oslo; University of Oslo; University of Helsinki; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; China Meteorological Administration; Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention; National Institute for Communicable Disease Control & Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention; Cornell University; Tsinghua University; University of Hong Kong; University of Oslo; University of Oslo; Beijing Institute of Microbiolog...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Yuchen,Zhang, Chutian,Gao, Jing,et al. Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation[J],2024,121(4).
APA	Wang, Yuchen.,Zhang, Chutian.,Gao, Jing.,Chen, Ziqi.,Liu, Zhao.,...&Xu, Lei.(2024).Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,121(4).
MLA	Wang, Yuchen,et al."Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 121.4(2024).