气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The growing inadequacy of an open- ended Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2308901121
	The growing inadequacy of an open- ended Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world
	Wehner, Michael F.; Kossin, James P.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0027-8424
EISSN	1091-6490
起始页码	121
结束页码	7
卷号	121 期号:7
英文摘要	Global warming increases available sensible and latent heat energy, increasing the thermodynamic potential wind intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). Supported by theory, observations, and modeling, this causes a shift in mean TC intensity, which tends to manifest most clearly at the greatest intensities. The Saffir-Simpson scale for categorizing damage based on the wind intensity of TCs was introduced in the early 1970s and remains the most commonly used metric for public communication of the level of wind hazard that a TC poses. Because the scale is open-ended and does not extend beyond category 5 (70 m/s windspeed or greater), the level of wind hazard conveyed by the scale remains constant regardless of how far the intensity extends beyond 70 m/s. This may be considered a weakness of the scale, particularly considering that the destructive potential of the wind increases exponentially. Here, we consider how this weakness becomes amplified in a warming world by elucidating the past and future increases of peak wind speeds in the most intense TCs. A simple extrapolation of the Saffir-Simpson scale is used to define a hypothetical category 6, and we describe the frequency of TCs, both past and projected under global warming, that would fall under this category. We find that a number of recent storms have already achieved this hypothetical category 6 intensity and based on multiple independent lines of evidence examining the highest simulated and potential peak wind speeds, more such storms are projected as the climate continues to warm.
英文关键词	tropical cyclone; climate change; Saffir-Simpson; hurricane intensity scale
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001169149100011
来源期刊	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/300286
作者单位	United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wehner, Michael F.,Kossin, James P.. The growing inadequacy of an open- ended Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world[J],2024,121(7).
APA	Wehner, Michael F.,&Kossin, James P..(2024).The growing inadequacy of an open- ended Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,121(7).
MLA	Wehner, Michael F.,et al."The growing inadequacy of an open- ended Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 121.7(2024).