气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected Increase in Compound Drought and Hot Days over Global Maize Areas under Global Warming

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DOI	10.3390/w16040621
	Projected Increase in Compound Drought and Hot Days over Global Maize Areas under Global Warming
	He, Yan; Zhao, Yanxia; Duan, Yihong; Hu, Xiaokang; Fang, Jiayi
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4441
起始页码	16
结束页码	4
卷号	16 期号:4
英文摘要	Compound drought and hot events can lead to detrimental impacts on crop yield with grave implications for global and regional food security. Hence, an understanding of how such events will change under unabated global warming is helpful to avoid associated negative impacts and better prepare for them. In this article, we comprehensively analyze the projected changes in compound drought and hot days (CDHDs) occurring within the maize-growing season of 2015-2100 over dynamic global maize areas using 10 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and four socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The results demonstrate a notable increase in the frequency and severity of CDHDs over global maize areas under all four SSPs, of which SSP5-8.5 has the fastest rise, followed by SSP3-7.0, SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6. By the end of 21st century, the global average frequency and severity of CDHDs will reach 18 similar to 68 days and 1.0 similar to 2.6. Hotspot regions for CDHDs are mainly found in southern Africa, eastern South America, southern Europe and the eastern USA, where drought and heat show the most widespread increases. The increase in CDHDs will be faster than general hot days so that almost all increments of hot days will be accompanied by droughts in the future; therefore, compound dry and hot stresses will gradually become the predominant form of dry and heat stress on maize growth. The results can be applied to optimize adaptation strategies for mitigating risks from CDHDs on maize production worldwide.
英文关键词	compound drought and hot days; climate change; maize; future; global
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001173103400001
来源期刊	WATER
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/300204
作者单位	China Meteorological Administration; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS); China Meteorological Administration; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS); Beijing Normal University; Hangzhou Normal University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	He, Yan,Zhao, Yanxia,Duan, Yihong,et al. Projected Increase in Compound Drought and Hot Days over Global Maize Areas under Global Warming[J],2024,16(4).
APA	He, Yan,Zhao, Yanxia,Duan, Yihong,Hu, Xiaokang,&Fang, Jiayi.(2024).Projected Increase in Compound Drought and Hot Days over Global Maize Areas under Global Warming.WATER,16(4).
MLA	He, Yan,et al."Projected Increase in Compound Drought and Hot Days over Global Maize Areas under Global Warming".WATER 16.4(2024).