气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/atmos15010050
	Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections
	Ding, Xiaoyun; Yu, Yang; Yang, Meilin; Wang, Qian; Zhang, Lingyun; Guo, Zengkun; Zhang, Jing; Mailik, Ireneusz; Malgorzata, Wistuba; Yu, Ruide; Bonacci, Ognjen
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4433
起始页码	15
结束页码	1
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	Recent studies on China's arid and semi-arid regions, particularly the Tarim River Basin (TRB), have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. This research examines the link between meteorological droughts, as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and hydrological droughts, as indicated by the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and the Standardized Terrestrial Water Storage Index (STI), over various time scales. Historical data indicate that SPEI drought frequency (DF) was 14.3-21.9%, with prevalent events in the northern oases. SRI DF ranged from 9.0% to 35.8%, concentrated around the Taklamakan and Kumtag Deserts, while STI DF varied between 4.4% and 32.7%, averaging 15% basin-wide. Future projections show an increased DF of SPEI in deserts and a decrease in oases; SRI DF decreased in deserts but increased in oases. STI changes were more moderate. The study also found a higher risk of drought progression from SPEI to SRI in the southwestern and northeastern oases, exceeding 50% probability, while central and eastern TRB had lower risks. The western TRB and inner Taklamakan Desert faced higher risks of SPEI to STI progression, with probabilities over 45%, in contrast to the lower risks in the eastern and central oases. The concurrence of SRI/STI with moderate to extreme SPEI droughts led to a higher probability and area of SRI/STI droughts, whereas consistent SPEI types showed a reduced induced probability and extent of SRI/STI droughts. This study enhances the understanding of drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the TRB and contributes to the prevention of hydrological drought to a certain extent.
英文关键词	drought propagation; SPEI; SRI; STI; CMIP6; conditional probability
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001149126000001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/300130
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; University of Silesia in Katowice
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ding, Xiaoyun,Yu, Yang,Yang, Meilin,et al. Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections[J],2024,15(1).
APA	Ding, Xiaoyun.,Yu, Yang.,Yang, Meilin.,Wang, Qian.,Zhang, Lingyun.,...&Bonacci, Ognjen.(2024).Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections.ATMOSPHERE,15(1).
MLA	Ding, Xiaoyun,et al."Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections".ATMOSPHERE 15.1(2024).