气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): 'Drivin' with your eyes closed': Results from an international, blinded simulation experiment to evaluate spatial stock assessments

CCPortal

DOI	10.1111/faf.12819
	'Drivin' with your eyes closed': Results from an international, blinded simulation experiment to evaluate spatial stock assessments
	Goethel, Daniel R.; Berger, Aaron M.; Hoyle, Simon D.; Lynch, Patrick D.; Barcelo, Caren; Deroba, Jonathan; Ducharme-Barth, Nicholas D.; Dunn, Alistair; Fu, Dan; Izquierdo, Francisco; Marsh, Craig; Xu, Haikun; Correa, Giancarlo M.; Langseth, Brian J.; Maunder, Mark N.; Mckenzie, Jeremy; Methot, Richard D.; Vincent, Matthew T.; A'mar, Teresa; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Cousido-Rocha, Marta; Davies, Nick; Hampton, John; Minte-Vera, Carolina; Urtizberea, Agurtzane
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1467-2960
EISSN	1467-2979
起始页码	25
结束页码	3
卷号	25 期号:3
英文摘要	Spatial models enable understanding potential redistribution of marine resources associated with ecosystem drivers and climate change. Stock assessment platforms can incorporate spatial processes, but have not been widely implemented or simulation tested. To address this research gap, an international simulation experiment was organized. The study design was blinded to replicate uncertainty similar to a real-world stock assessment process, and a data-conditioned, high-resolution operating model (OM) was used to emulate the spatial dynamics and data for Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares). Six analyst groups developed both single-region and spatial stock assessment models using an assessment platform of their choice, and then applied each model to the simulated data. Results indicated that across all spatial structures and platforms, assessments were able to adequately recreate the population trends from the OM. Additionally, spatial models were able to estimate regional population trends that generally reflected the true dynamics from the OM, particularly for the regions with higher biomass and fishing pressure. However, a consistent population biomass scaling pattern emerged, where spatial models estimated higher population scale than single-region models within a given assessment platform. Balancing parsimony and complexity trade-offs were difficult, but adequate complexity in spatial parametrizations (e.g., allowing time- and age-variation in movement and appropriate tag mixing periods) was critical to model performance. We recommend expanded use of high-resolution OMs and blinded studies, given their ability to portray realistic performance of assessment models. Moreover, increased support for international simulation experiments is warranted to facilitate dissemination of methodology across organizations.
英文关键词	fisheries management; mark-recapture; simulation; spatial ecology; spatial stock assessment; tag-integrated models
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Fisheries
WOS类目	Fisheries
WOS记录号	WOS:001175875700001
来源期刊	FISH AND FISHERIES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/299858
作者单位	National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; University of Washington; University of Washington Tacoma; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); Spanish Institute of Oceanography; National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) - New Zealand; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) - New Zealand; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; AZTI; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Goethel, Daniel R.,Berger, Aaron M.,Hoyle, Simon D.,et al. 'Drivin' with your eyes closed': Results from an international, blinded simulation experiment to evaluate spatial stock assessments[J],2024,25(3).
APA	Goethel, Daniel R..,Berger, Aaron M..,Hoyle, Simon D..,Lynch, Patrick D..,Barcelo, Caren.,...&Urtizberea, Agurtzane.(2024).'Drivin' with your eyes closed': Results from an international, blinded simulation experiment to evaluate spatial stock assessments.FISH AND FISHERIES,25(3).
MLA	Goethel, Daniel R.,et al."'Drivin' with your eyes closed': Results from an international, blinded simulation experiment to evaluate spatial stock assessments".FISH AND FISHERIES 25.3(2024).