气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Unlocking effective ice-jam risk management: Insights from agent-based modeling and comparative analysis of social theories in Fort McMurray, Canada

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103731
	Unlocking effective ice-jam risk management: Insights from agent-based modeling and comparative analysis of social theories in Fort McMurray, Canada
	Ghoreishi, Mohammad; Lindenschmidt, Karl -Erich
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1462-9011
EISSN	1873-6416
起始页码	157
卷号	157
英文摘要	Ice jams pose a major flood hazard in communities along northern rivers, resulting in high backwater levels and overbank flooding during ice-cover breakup. Mitigation measures, including large-scale projects by government agencies and individual actions by asset owners, can help reduce flood risk and protect human life and assets. This study examines ice-jam flood risk and explores the effectiveness of adaptive strategies in mitigating such risks in Fort McMurry, Canada. It evaluates the effectiveness of top-down (government-led artificial breakup) and bottom-up (resident-led flood-proofing) strategies, comparing the Rational Choice Theory (RCT) and the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) models. The objective is to explore the potential enhancements to the ice-jam flood risk model through the integration of the PMT as a decision-making framework under uncertainty. This study seeks to assess whether and to what extent such integration can improve the modeling of ice-jam flood risk. The findings highlight the benefits of incorporating socio-economic factors in the PMT model. Economic factors, such as income tax and the cost of flood-proofing, shape overall flood risk, especially when artificial breakup measures are not implemented. The study emphasizes the importance of considering heterogeneity in decisionmaking processes and diverse characteristics of individuals when designing flood risk management strategies. Response efficacy and self-efficacy coefficients are significant factors influencing flood risk and the adoption of flood-proofing measures. Enhancing individuals' belief in their actions' effectiveness and their confidence in selfprotection contributes to more effective flood risk management. These findings inform the development of more effective flood risk management strategies.
英文关键词	Agent -based modeling; Flood risk; Ice -jam flood; Flood -proofing; Adaptation
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001232727900001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/299635
作者单位	University of Saskatchewan; Global Institute for Water Security; University of Saskatchewan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ghoreishi, Mohammad,Lindenschmidt, Karl -Erich. Unlocking effective ice-jam risk management: Insights from agent-based modeling and comparative analysis of social theories in Fort McMurray, Canada[J],2024,157.
APA	Ghoreishi, Mohammad,&Lindenschmidt, Karl -Erich.(2024).Unlocking effective ice-jam risk management: Insights from agent-based modeling and comparative analysis of social theories in Fort McMurray, Canada.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY,157.
MLA	Ghoreishi, Mohammad,et al."Unlocking effective ice-jam risk management: Insights from agent-based modeling and comparative analysis of social theories in Fort McMurray, Canada".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY 157(2024).