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| DOI | 10.1007/s00376-023-3118-2 |
| Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0256-1530 |
| EISSN | 1861-9533 |
| 英文摘要 | Spring consecutive rainfall events (CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models (GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6, indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6. |
| 英文关键词 | triple-nested downscaling; Three Gorges Reservoir area; consecutive rainfall events; geological hazards; projection |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001191069000001 |
| 来源期刊 | ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/299481 |
| 作者单位 | China University of Geosciences; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Bergen; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research; Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center (NERSC); Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling[J],2024. |
| APA | (2024).Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling.ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES. |
| MLA | "Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling".ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (2024). |
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