气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatial-temporal dynamics of population exposure to compound extreme heat-precipitation events under multiple scenarios for Pearl River Basin, China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100477
	Spatial-temporal dynamics of population exposure to compound extreme heat-precipitation events under multiple scenarios for Pearl River Basin, China
	Qi, Zixuan; Sun, Lian; Cai, Yanpeng; Xie, Yulei; Yao, Linlin; Li, Bowen; Ye, Yuchen
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2405-8807
起始页码	34
卷号	34
英文摘要	Extreme heat -precipitation events, such as heatwaves and extreme precipitation, can have substantial impacts on the population, particularly in urbanized watersheds. However, few studies have investigated individual and compound extreme heat -precipitation events, causing much valuable information loss for watershed climate risk management. This study focuses on the Pearl River Basin (PRB), a highly urbanized area in southern China, and aims to predict changes in population exposure to extreme heat -precipitation events. To achieve this, a ranked ensemble global climate model (GCM) was used to generate projections for individual extreme precipitation, heatwaves, and sequential and coincident heat waves and precipitation extremes (SHWPs and CHWPs) under three future scenarios (SSP-RCPs). The main findings of the study are as follows: Precipitation extremes represent increasing extreme days and intensity under all three scenarios across the PRB. Towards the end of the 21st century, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that heat waves will last ten times longer than historical records. Comparing two types of compound extreme events, we conclude that the 21st century will see a near -term high risk for SHWPs and a long-term high risk for CHWPs in the PRB. Furthermore, in both individual and compound heat -precipitation events, five hotspot cities in the PRB (i.e., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, and Huizhou) will face higher population exposure to extreme heat -precipitation events. These cities share common characteristics: key to economic development, coastal, and densely populated. This study can provide insight into extreme climate risk management in other tropical and subtropical basins.
英文关键词	CMIP6; Compound extremes; Heat waves; Population exposure; Precipitation extremes
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001233256200001
来源期刊	CLIMATE SERVICES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/299375
作者单位	Guangdong University of Technology; Southern Marine Science & Engineering Guangdong Laboratory; Southern Marine Science & Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou); Anhui Normal University; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qi, Zixuan,Sun, Lian,Cai, Yanpeng,et al. Spatial-temporal dynamics of population exposure to compound extreme heat-precipitation events under multiple scenarios for Pearl River Basin, China[J],2024,34.
APA	Qi, Zixuan.,Sun, Lian.,Cai, Yanpeng.,Xie, Yulei.,Yao, Linlin.,...&Ye, Yuchen.(2024).Spatial-temporal dynamics of population exposure to compound extreme heat-precipitation events under multiple scenarios for Pearl River Basin, China.CLIMATE SERVICES,34.
MLA	Qi, Zixuan,et al."Spatial-temporal dynamics of population exposure to compound extreme heat-precipitation events under multiple scenarios for Pearl River Basin, China".CLIMATE SERVICES 34(2024).