气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Defining national net zero goals is critical for food and land use policy

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s43247-024-01275-0
	Defining national net zero goals is critical for food and land use policy
	Bishop, George; Duffy, Colm; Prudhomme, Remi; Cowie, Annette; O'Donoghue, Cathal; Cain, Michelle; Lanigan, Gary J.; Styles, David
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2662-4435
起始页码	5
结束页码	1
卷号	5 期号:1
英文摘要	The identification of agriculture and land use configurations that achieve net zero (NZ) greenhouse gas emissions is critical to inform appropriate land use and food policy, yet national NZ targets lack consistent definitions. Here, 3000 randomised scenarios projecting future agricultural production and compatible land use combinations in Ireland were screened using ten NZ definitions. When aggregating carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions using various methods, 1-85% of scenarios met NZ criteria. Despite considerable variation, common actions emerged across definitions, including high rates of afforestation, organic soil re-wetting, and cattle destocking. Ambitious technical abatement of agricultural emissions moderated, but could not substitute, these actions. With abatement, 95th percentile milk output varied from 11-91% of 2021 output, but was associated with reductions of up to 98% in suckler-beef production, and a 47-387% increase in forest cover. Achieving NZ will thus require transformation of Ireland's land sector. Lagging land use change effects require urgent action, but sustaining a just transition will require visioning of future NZ land use combinations supporting a sustainable and resilient food system, alongside an expanding circular bioeconomy. We provide new insight into the sensitivity of such visioning to NZ definitions, pointing to an urgent need for international consensus on the accounting of methane emissions in NZ targets. In Ireland, afforestation, organic soil re-wetting, and cattle destocking are key for meeting the net zero goal regardless of its definition; technical abatement moderates but does not substitute these actions, according to an analysis of agriculture and land use scenarios.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001176781200003
来源期刊	COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/298901
作者单位	Ollscoil na Gaillimhe-University of Galway; Ollscoil na Gaillimhe-University of Galway; James Hutton Institute; Ecole des Ponts ParisTech; CIRAD; NSW Department of Primary Industries; University of New England; Ollscoil na Gaillimhe-University of Galway; Cranfield University; Teagasc
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bishop, George,Duffy, Colm,Prudhomme, Remi,et al. Defining national net zero goals is critical for food and land use policy[J],2024,5(1).
APA	Bishop, George.,Duffy, Colm.,Prudhomme, Remi.,Cowie, Annette.,O'Donoghue, Cathal.,...&Styles, David.(2024).Defining national net zero goals is critical for food and land use policy.COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,5(1).
MLA	Bishop, George,et al."Defining national net zero goals is critical for food and land use policy".COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 5.1(2024).