气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying the influence of climate change on streamflow of Rietspruit sub-basin, South Africa

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2024.690
	Quantifying the influence of climate change on streamflow of Rietspruit sub-basin, South Africa
	Banda, Vincent Dzulani; Dzwairo, Rimuka Bloodless; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Kanyerere, Thokozani
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2040-2244
EISSN	2408-9354
起始页码	15
结束页码	5
卷号	15 期号:5
英文摘要	This study integrated climate projections from five global climate models (GCMs) into the soil and water assessment tool to evaluate the potential impact of climate alterations on the Rietspruit River sub-basin under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The model's performance was evaluated based on the coefficient of determination (R-2), percent bias (PBIAS), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), probability (P)-factor and correlation coefficient (R)-factor. Calibration results showed an R-2 of 0.62, NSE of 0.60, PBIAS of 20, P-factor of 0.86 and R-factor of 0.91, while validation produced an R-2 of 0.64, NSE of 0.61, PBIAS of 40 and P-factor of 0.85 and R-factor of 1.22. Precipitation is predicted to increase under both RCPs. Maximum temperature is projected to increase under both RCPs, with a major increase in the winter months. Minimum temperatures are projected to decrease under RCP4.5 in the near (-0.99 degrees C) and mid (-0.23 degrees C) futures, while the far future is projected to experience an increase of 0.14 degrees C. Precipitation and temperature changes correspond to increases in streamflow by an average of 53% (RCP4.5) and 47% (RCP8.5). These results indicate a need for an integrated approach in catchment water resource management amid potential climate and land use variations.
英文关键词	global climate models; hydrological modelling; land use; representative concentration pathways; SWAT model
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001207925200001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/298849
作者单位	University of the Western Cape; Durban University of Technology; Durban University of Technology; University of Allahabad
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Banda, Vincent Dzulani,Dzwairo, Rimuka Bloodless,Singh, Sudhir Kumar,et al. Quantifying the influence of climate change on streamflow of Rietspruit sub-basin, South Africa[J],2024,15(5).
APA	Banda, Vincent Dzulani,Dzwairo, Rimuka Bloodless,Singh, Sudhir Kumar,&Kanyerere, Thokozani.(2024).Quantifying the influence of climate change on streamflow of Rietspruit sub-basin, South Africa.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,15(5).
MLA	Banda, Vincent Dzulani,et al."Quantifying the influence of climate change on streamflow of Rietspruit sub-basin, South Africa".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 15.5(2024).