气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying Uncertainty in Hydrological Drought Index Using Calibrated SWAT Model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s12205-024-1029-0
	Quantifying Uncertainty in Hydrological Drought Index Using Calibrated SWAT Model
	Kim, Jin Hyuck; Chung, Eun-Sung; Song, Jae Yeol; Shahid, Shamsuddin
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1226-7988
EISSN	1976-3808
起始页码	28
结束页码	5
卷号	28 期号:5
英文摘要	The hydrological model requires precise parameter calibration to reflect the basin characteristics properly. The optimum parameter values depend highly on the runoff characteristics; thus, the simulated runoff data affects the uncertainty in hydrological drought assessment using hydrological models. This study quantified the hydrological drought uncertainty based on all available calibrated parameters for 12 different observation periods. The Soil and water assessment Tool was used for hydrological modelling, and the uncertainty was analyzed using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The hydrological drought index using the simulated runoff was analyzed to vary significantly with the optimized hydrological parameter cases. The drought index calculation using the estimated runoff showed that the number of droughts occurred frequently as the duration increased, But, it was observed that severe droughts of 21-month duration occur most frequently. The uncertainty analysis conducted with BMA revealed that for durations shorter than 18 months, the uncertainties in drought index calculations were higher than those in runoff simulations. As the duration increased, uncertainties decreased, with values of 57%, 54%, 50%, 23%, 23%, 19%, 16% and 16% for 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21 and 24-month durations, respectively. The average uncertainty was larger for runoff estimation than for drought calculation. Still, the uncertainty variation by each PC was larger for drought calculation, ranging from 0 to 94% as the duration increased to 24 months. Therefore, the results of this study confirm that hydrological drought analysis using hydrological models contains uncertainties depending on the hydrological model parameter cases.
英文关键词	Uncertainty; Hydrological drought; Quantifying uncertainty; BMA
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil
WOS记录号	WOS:001163080200002
来源期刊	KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/298767
作者单位	Seoul National University of Science & Technology; Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kim, Jin Hyuck,Chung, Eun-Sung,Song, Jae Yeol,et al. Quantifying Uncertainty in Hydrological Drought Index Using Calibrated SWAT Model[J],2024,28(5).
APA	Kim, Jin Hyuck,Chung, Eun-Sung,Song, Jae Yeol,&Shahid, Shamsuddin.(2024).Quantifying Uncertainty in Hydrological Drought Index Using Calibrated SWAT Model.KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING,28(5).
MLA	Kim, Jin Hyuck,et al."Quantifying Uncertainty in Hydrological Drought Index Using Calibrated SWAT Model".KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING 28.5(2024).