气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection of future heat-related morbidity in three metropolitan prefectures of Japan based on large ensemble simulations of climate change under 2 °C global warming scenarios

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DOI	10.1016/j.envres.2024.118202
	Projection of future heat-related morbidity in three metropolitan prefectures of Japan based on large ensemble simulations of climate change under 2 °C global warming scenarios
	Ueta, Haruto; Kodera, Sachiko; Sugimoto, Shiori; Hirata, Akimasa
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0013-9351
EISSN	1096-0953
起始页码	247
卷号	247
英文摘要	Recently, global warming has become a prominent topic, including its impacts on human health. The number of heat illness cases requiring ambulance transport has been strongly linked to increasing temperature and the frequency of heat waves. Thus, a potential increase in the number of cases in the future is a concern for medical resource management. In this study, we estimated the number of heat illness cases in three prefectures of Japan under 2 degrees C global warming scenarios, approximately corresponding to the 2040s. Based on the population composition, a regression model was used to estimate the number of heat illness cases with an input parameter of time-dependent meteorological ambient temperature or computed thermophysiological response of test subjects in large-scale computation. We generated 504 weather patterns using 2 degrees C global warming scenarios. The largescale computational results show that daily amount of sweating increased twice and the core temperature increased by maximum 0.168 degrees C, suggesting significant heat strain. According to the regression model, the estimated number of heat illness cases in the 2040s of the three prefectures was 1.90 (95%CI: 1.35-2.38) times higher than that in the 2010s. These computational results suggest the need to manage ambulance services and medical resource allocation, including intervention for public awareness of heat illnesses. This issue will be important in other aging societies in near future.
英文关键词	Heat illness; Physiological modeling; Future projections of morbidity; Heat adaptation
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS记录号	WOS:001175272600001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/298241
作者单位	Nagoya Institute of Technology; Nagoya Institute of Technology; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology (JAMSTEC); Nagoya Institute of Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ueta, Haruto,Kodera, Sachiko,Sugimoto, Shiori,et al. Projection of future heat-related morbidity in three metropolitan prefectures of Japan based on large ensemble simulations of climate change under 2 °C global warming scenarios[J],2024,247.
APA	Ueta, Haruto,Kodera, Sachiko,Sugimoto, Shiori,&Hirata, Akimasa.(2024).Projection of future heat-related morbidity in three metropolitan prefectures of Japan based on large ensemble simulations of climate change under 2 °C global warming scenarios.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH,247.
MLA	Ueta, Haruto,et al."Projection of future heat-related morbidity in three metropolitan prefectures of Japan based on large ensemble simulations of climate change under 2 °C global warming scenarios".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 247(2024).