气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Farmers' futures: an application of the Delphi method in the context of Finnish agriculture

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DOI	10.1186/s40309-023-00224-y
	Farmers' futures: an application of the Delphi method in the context of Finnish agriculture
	Sorvali, Jaana; Varho, Vilja; Rikkonen, Pasi; Kaseva, Janne; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2195-4194
EISSN	2195-2248
起始页码	12
结束页码	1
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	In Finland, agriculture is practiced in variable growing conditions that are further challenged by climate change and under external pressure caused by international competition, changing consumer preferences and demands, and the renewal of the European Union Common Agriculture Policy and Paris Agreement climate targets. Futures studies in agriculture have focused on scenario building with expert panels, though usually without farmers' involvement. This study focuses on farmers' views of shaping the future of Finnish agriculture. It builds on the disaggregative Delphi method and combines interviews and a representative survey of Finnish farmers. The study is based on a bottom-up process in which a farmer panel of 20 farms defined their views of the future in a semi-structured thematic interview. The views were turned into statements in a structured survey sent to the second panel, which comprised all Finnish farmers who had received agricultural subsidies in 2016, with 4401 respondents. The results were analyzed using quantitative factor analysis, which produced five future images for Finnish agriculture. The images were shown to the original farmer panel for reflection. They considered the probability of each future image and their own role in it. Technology solves as a future image was most favored by farmers, followed by Ecological and specializing small-scale production image. Business-as-usual was the least likely future images according to the interviewed farmers. This paper describes the process and discusses both methodological benefits and pitfalls, as well as farmers' future views of the forthcoming decades.
英文关键词	Future images; Delphi; Agriculture; Farmer; Mixed methods; Factor analysis; Interview
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Social Sciences - Other Topics
WOS类目	Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001172932600001
来源期刊	EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FUTURES RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297928
作者单位	Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke); Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke); Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sorvali, Jaana,Varho, Vilja,Rikkonen, Pasi,et al. Farmers' futures: an application of the Delphi method in the context of Finnish agriculture[J],2024,12(1).
APA	Sorvali, Jaana,Varho, Vilja,Rikkonen, Pasi,Kaseva, Janne,&Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo.(2024).Farmers' futures: an application of the Delphi method in the context of Finnish agriculture.EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FUTURES RESEARCH,12(1).
MLA	Sorvali, Jaana,et al."Farmers' futures: an application of the Delphi method in the context of Finnish agriculture".EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FUTURES RESEARCH 12.1(2024).