气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Constraining the Pattern and Magnitude of Projected Extreme Precipitation Change in a Multimodel Ensemble

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0492.1
	Constraining the Pattern and Magnitude of Projected Extreme Precipitation Change in a Multimodel Ensemble
	Kotz, Maximilian; Lange, Stefan; Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	37
结束页码	1
卷号	37 期号:1
英文摘要	Projections of precipitation extremes over land are crucial for socioeconomic risk assessments, yet model dis-crepancies limit their application. Here we use a pattern-filtering technique to identify low-frequency changes in individual members of a multimodel ensemble to assess discrepancies across models in the projected pattern and magnitude of change. Specifically, we apply low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to the intensity and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over land in 21 CMIP-6 models. LFCA brings modest but statistically significant improvements in the agreement between models in the spatial pattern of projected change, particularly in scenarios with weak greenhouse forcing. Moreover, we show that LFCA facilitates a robust identification of the rates at which increasing precipitation extremes scale with global tempera-ture change within individual ensemble members. While these rates approximately match expectations from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation on average across models, individual models exhibit considerable and significant differences. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that these differences contribute to uncertainty in the magnitude of projected change at least as much as differences in the climate sensitivity. Last, we compare these scaling rates with those identified from observational products, demonstrating that virtually all climate models significantly underestimate the rates at which increases in precipitation ex-tremes have scaled with global temperatures historically. Constraining projections with observations therefore amplifies the projected intensification of precipitation extremes as well as reducing the relative error of their distribution.
英文关键词	Atmosphere; Precipitation; Climate change; Empirical orthogonal functions; Pattern detection; General circulation models
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001124089300001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297896
作者单位	Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; University of Potsdam; Columbia University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kotz, Maximilian,Lange, Stefan,Wenz, Leonie,et al. Constraining the Pattern and Magnitude of Projected Extreme Precipitation Change in a Multimodel Ensemble[J],2024,37(1).
APA	Kotz, Maximilian,Lange, Stefan,Wenz, Leonie,&Levermann, Anders.(2024).Constraining the Pattern and Magnitude of Projected Extreme Precipitation Change in a Multimodel Ensemble.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,37(1).
MLA	Kotz, Maximilian,et al."Constraining the Pattern and Magnitude of Projected Extreme Precipitation Change in a Multimodel Ensemble".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 37.1(2024).