气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extreme analysis of typhoons disaster in mainland China with insurance management

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104411
	Extreme analysis of typhoons disaster in mainland China with insurance management
	Hu, Kaihao; Wang, Ruojin; Xu, Jingyi; Constantinescu, Corina; Chen, Ying; Ling, Chengxiu
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2212-4209
起始页码	106
卷号	106
英文摘要	Due to climate change, typhoons, especially extreme typhoons, are becoming more intense and causing ascending financial losses. A majority of previous studies on typhoon economic losses over a period of time considered all types of typhoon rather than the extreme typhoons. This study focuses on the risk management of extreme typhoons by establishing the compensation mechanism and a typhoon -specific insurance product. The annual maximum losses of typhoons is first modelled by generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) under the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The prediction of unexpected economic losses is then obtained via VaR and CVaR for the compensation mechanism among individual, insurance company and government. To analyse the typhoon vulnerability of 11 Chinese coastal provinces (or municipalities), the Multiple -Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method, combining Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based Grey Rational Analysis (GRA) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), is applied for evaluating the typhoon vulnerability of these regions for 2022. The nationwide best estimates for typhoon reserves on the basis of insurance compensation mechanism is therefore calculated and will be allocated to these 11 provinces according to the vulnerability ranking obtained via MCDM method. The findings indicate that the top three provinces (Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang) in typhoon vulnerability rankings are also with the highest losses and frequency in practice, while Hebei has the highest insurance premium.
英文关键词	Extreme Value Theory; Typhoon-induced disaster; Multiple Criteria Decision Making; Compensation mechanism; Insurance pricing
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001221770200001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/297019
作者单位	Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University; University of Liverpool; University of Hong Kong; Heriot Watt University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hu, Kaihao,Wang, Ruojin,Xu, Jingyi,et al. Extreme analysis of typhoons disaster in mainland China with insurance management[J],2024,106.
APA	Hu, Kaihao,Wang, Ruojin,Xu, Jingyi,Constantinescu, Corina,Chen, Ying,&Ling, Chengxiu.(2024).Extreme analysis of typhoons disaster in mainland China with insurance management.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,106.
MLA	Hu, Kaihao,et al."Extreme analysis of typhoons disaster in mainland China with insurance management".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 106(2024).