气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction and Transition of Vegetation Vulnerability in the Mara River Basin under Different Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), East Africa

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/f15040610
	Prediction and Transition of Vegetation Vulnerability in the Mara River Basin under Different Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), East Africa
	Zhu, Wanyi; Zhang, Zhenke; Feng, Shouming; Ren, Hang
发表日期	2024
EISSN	1999-4907
起始页码	15
结束页码	4
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	The Mara River basin (MRB) has a world-famous ecosystem, but the vegetation has been damaged due to economic development in recent years, and there is little known about the area that will experience severe vegetation damage in the future. Based on the vegetation vulnerability system, principal component analysis, and three Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), vegetation vulnerability was calculated for the base period (2010-2019), near future period (2020-2059) and distinct future period (2060-2099) in the MRB. The spatial cluster of vegetation vulnerability was revealed by spatial correlation analysis, and the transition of vegetation vulnerability of different periods was analyzed by stochastic matrix. The results showed that for all periods, the vulnerability showed a high-high cluster in the east, and a low-low cluster midstream and downstream. From the stochastic matrix, the area of high vulnerability increased the least under the SSP1-2.6, while it increased the most under the SSP5-8.5. The vegetation vulnerability upstream increased the most from the base period to the near future period and distinct future period in the MRB. By comparing the vegetation vulnerability under different scenarios and pointing out the areas with the highest vulnerability increase, this study can better provide comprehensive decision-making for vegetation protection in the MRB.
英文关键词	vegetation vulnerability; prediction; stochastic matrix
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Forestry
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS记录号	WOS:001210660300001
来源期刊	FORESTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296978
作者单位	Nanjing University; Nanjing University; Nanjing University of Posts & Telecommunications
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Wanyi,Zhang, Zhenke,Feng, Shouming,et al. Prediction and Transition of Vegetation Vulnerability in the Mara River Basin under Different Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), East Africa[J],2024,15(4).
APA	Zhu, Wanyi,Zhang, Zhenke,Feng, Shouming,&Ren, Hang.(2024).Prediction and Transition of Vegetation Vulnerability in the Mara River Basin under Different Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), East Africa.FORESTS,15(4).
MLA	Zhu, Wanyi,et al."Prediction and Transition of Vegetation Vulnerability in the Mara River Basin under Different Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), East Africa".FORESTS 15.4(2024).