气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Widespread societal and ecological impacts from projected Tibetan Plateau lake expansion

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-024-01446-w
	Widespread societal and ecological impacts from projected Tibetan Plateau lake expansion
	Xu, Fenglin; Zhang, Guoqing; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Yang, Kun; Wada, Yoshihide; Wang, Jida; Cretaux, Jean-Francois
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1752-0894
EISSN	1752-0908
英文摘要	Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are expanding rapidly in response to climate change. The potential impact on the local environment if lake expansion continues remains uncertain. Here we integrate field surveys, remote sensing observations and numerical modelling to assess future changes in lake surface area, water level and water volume. We also assess the ensuing risks to critical infrastructure, human settlements and key ecosystem components. Our results suggest that by 2100, even under a low-emissions scenario, the surface area of endorheic lakes on the Tibetan Plateau will increase by over 50% (similar to 20,000 km(2)) and water levels will rise by around 10 m relative to 2020. This expansion represents approximately a fourfold increase in water storage compared with the period from the 1970s to 2020. A shift from lake shrinkage to expansion was projected in the southern plateau around 2021. The expansion is primarily fuelled by amplified lake water inputs from increased precipitation and glacier meltwater, profoundly reshaping the hydrological connectivity of the lake basins. In the absence of hazard mitigation measures, lake expansion is projected to submerge critical human infrastructure, including more than 1,000 km of roads, approximately 500 settlements and around 10,000 km2 of ecological components such as grasslands, wetlands and croplands. Our study highlights the urgent need for water hazard mitigation and management across the Tibetan Plateau.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001232306300002
来源期刊	NATURE GEOSCIENCE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296965
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Bangor University; Tsinghua University; King Abdullah University of Science & Technology; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Kansas State University; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Fenglin,Zhang, Guoqing,Woolway, R. Iestyn,et al. Widespread societal and ecological impacts from projected Tibetan Plateau lake expansion[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2024.
APA	Xu, Fenglin.,Zhang, Guoqing.,Woolway, R. Iestyn.,Yang, Kun.,Wada, Yoshihide.,...&Cretaux, Jean-Francois.(2024).Widespread societal and ecological impacts from projected Tibetan Plateau lake expansion.NATURE GEOSCIENCE.
MLA	Xu, Fenglin,et al."Widespread societal and ecological impacts from projected Tibetan Plateau lake expansion".NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2024).