气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Autoregressive Forecasting of the Number of Forest Fires Using an Accumulated MODIS-Based Fuel Dryness Index

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DOI	10.3390/f15010042
	Autoregressive Forecasting of the Number of Forest Fires Using an Accumulated MODIS-Based Fuel Dryness Index
	Vega-Nieva, Daniel Jose; Briseno-Reyes, Jaime; Lopez-Serrano, Pablito-Marcelo; Corral-Rivas, Jose Javier; Pompa-Garcia, Marin; Cruz-Lopez, Maria Isabel; Cuahutle, Martin; Ressl, Rainer; Alvarado-Celestino, Ernesto; Burgan, Robert E.
发表日期	2024
EISSN	1999-4907
起始页码	15
结束页码	1
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	There is a need to convert fire danger indices into operational estimates of fire activity to support strategic fire management, particularly under climate change. Few studies have evaluated multiple accumulation times for indices that combine both dead and remotely sensed estimates of live fuel moisture, and relatively few studies have aimed at predicting fire activity from both such fuel moisture estimates and autoregressive terms of previous fires. The current study aimed at developing models to forecast the 10-day number of fires by state in Mexico, from an accumulated Fuel Dryness Index (FDI) and an autoregressive term from the previous 10-day observed number of fires. A period of 50 days of accumulated FDI (FDI50) provided the best results to forecast the 10-day number of fires from each state. The best predictions (R-2 > 0.6-0.75) were obtained in the largest states, with higher fire activity, and the lower correlations were found in small or very dry states. Autoregressive models showed good skill (R-2 of 0.99-0.81) to forecast FDI50 for the next 10 days based on previous fuel dryness observations. Maps of the expected number of fires showed potential to reproduce fire activity. Fire predictions might be enhanced with gridded weather forecasts in future studies.
英文关键词	fire danger; hazard; fuel moisture; fire occurrence; fire activity
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Forestry
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS记录号	WOS:001151931000001
来源期刊	FORESTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296701
作者单位	Universidad Juarez del Estado de Durango; Universidad Juarez del Estado de Durango; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; United States Department of Agriculture (USDA); United States Forest Service
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vega-Nieva, Daniel Jose,Briseno-Reyes, Jaime,Lopez-Serrano, Pablito-Marcelo,et al. Autoregressive Forecasting of the Number of Forest Fires Using an Accumulated MODIS-Based Fuel Dryness Index[J],2024,15(1).
APA	Vega-Nieva, Daniel Jose.,Briseno-Reyes, Jaime.,Lopez-Serrano, Pablito-Marcelo.,Corral-Rivas, Jose Javier.,Pompa-Garcia, Marin.,...&Burgan, Robert E..(2024).Autoregressive Forecasting of the Number of Forest Fires Using an Accumulated MODIS-Based Fuel Dryness Index.FORESTS,15(1).
MLA	Vega-Nieva, Daniel Jose,et al."Autoregressive Forecasting of the Number of Forest Fires Using an Accumulated MODIS-Based Fuel Dryness Index".FORESTS 15.1(2024).