气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Wind speed prediction using non-gaussian model based on Kumaraswamy distribution

CCPortal

DOI	10.1080/15567036.2023.2289558
	Wind speed prediction using non-gaussian model based on Kumaraswamy distribution
	Shad, Mohammad; Sharma, Y. D.; Narula, Pankaj
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1556-7036
EISSN	1556-7230
起始页码	46
结束页码	1
卷号	46 期号:1
英文摘要	Wind power is a clean source of energy that not only helps in meeting the growing electricity demand but can also play a profound role in transforming the global energy distribution to mitigate the impact of climate change. Accurate forecasting of wind speed is a crucial factor of power system management. The present endeavor focuses on the development of a non-gaussian framework, Kumaraswamy seasonal autoregressive moving average (KSARMA), to model and forecast the wind speed data of 12 locations across the Indian subcontinent. The monthly wind speed dataset during the period 2003 to 2019 has been utilized to perform the analysis. Diagnostic analysis, Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and conditional maximum likelihood estimator have been used to select the best-fit model for each location. The correlation coefficient between observed and predicted values for all the locations ranges from 0.77 to 0.93. The root mean squared error (RMSE) was found to lie in 0.04 to 0.16 whereas the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was observed in 0.06 to 0.2. A comparison of the proposed KSARMA model with the recently developed beta seasonal autoregressive moving average (beta SARMA) and Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average (KARMA) models has also been facilitated. Error estimates such as root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) reveal that the KSARMA model outperforms the beta SARMA and KARMA models except at the Kanyakumari location.
英文关键词	Wind speed prediction; Kumaraswamy distribution; non-gaussian, KSARMA
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001113540900001
来源期刊	ENERGY SOURCES PART A-RECOVERY UTILIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296651
作者单位	National Institute of Technology (NIT System); National Institute of Technology Hamirpur; Thapar Institute of Engineering & Technology; National Institute of Technology (NIT System); National Institute of Technology Hamirpur
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shad, Mohammad,Sharma, Y. D.,Narula, Pankaj. Wind speed prediction using non-gaussian model based on Kumaraswamy distribution[J],2024,46(1).
APA	Shad, Mohammad,Sharma, Y. D.,&Narula, Pankaj.(2024).Wind speed prediction using non-gaussian model based on Kumaraswamy distribution.ENERGY SOURCES PART A-RECOVERY UTILIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS,46(1).
MLA	Shad, Mohammad,et al."Wind speed prediction using non-gaussian model based on Kumaraswamy distribution".ENERGY SOURCES PART A-RECOVERY UTILIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 46.1(2024).