气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changing Climate Threatens Irrigation Benefits of Maize Gross Primary Productivity in China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2022EF003474
	Changing Climate Threatens Irrigation Benefits of Maize Gross Primary Productivity in China
	Liao, Dehai; Niu, Jun; Ciais, Philippe; Du, Taisheng; Zhang, Baozhong; Kang, Shaozhong
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2328-4277
起始页码	12
结束页码	1
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Intensive irrigation has been proven to profoundly impact climate through the surface energy budget. However, the impacts of irrigation and climate interactions on gross primary productivity (GPP) in maize cultivated areas remain uncertain. Here we quantified the irrigation effects on maize GPP ( increment GPP) across China by combining a land surface model and a light-use efficiency model and using satellite-based irrigation water use. We show that irrigation significantly contributed to an increase in maize GPP by an average of 430 gC center dot m-2 center dot yr-1, equivalent to 28% of the irrigated maize GPP in China. These benefits ( increment GPP) were attributed to irrigation effects (water supply, surface cooling) and climate interactions based on a machine learning framework (eXtreme Gradient Boosting model-SHapley Additive exPlanations). Irrigation water supply and surface cooling explained 54% +/- 19% and 23% +/- 20% of increment GPP respectively, the rest being due to strong climate interactions with irrigation through water and energy balance. Assuming business-as-usual irrigation levels, changing climate both increases and decreases Delta GPP over different regions, driven primarily by temperature changes. The irrigation benefits in those areas under heat stress are greatly threatened due to changing climate. The roles of climate change on increment GPP are reversed from beneficial to detrimental in the North China Plain, dominated by different warming levels of future scenarios. Our analysis provides new insights into assessing irrigation potential with the climate interactions and future irrigation priority regions. Irrigation is the most important water use sector accounting for about 70% of the global freshwater withdrawals and contributing 75% of China's total grain production. Application of irrigation water significantly alters agroecosystem water cycle, energy cycle and carbon cycle. The magnitudes of irrigation impact are also influenced by climate variability. In this study, we simulated irrigation benefits for maize gross primary productivity (GPP) using land surface models and satellite observations. The effects of climate interactions on the irrigation benefits were untangled using an explainable machine learning framework (eXtreme Gradient Boosting model-SHapley Additive exPlanations). We found that alterations in water cycle (water supply) and energy cycle (surface cooling) accounted for 54% +/- 19% and 23% +/- 20% of the irrigation benefits variability respectively, the rest being due to temperature-dominated climate interactions. With the climate change driven by persist warming, the irrigation benefits will be substantially reduced for those regions under ongoing heat stress, such as North China Plain. Future maize productivity will be greatly threatened by changing climate, considering the prevailing negative trends for the irrigation benefits throughout the nation. Reinforcing anthropogenic activities such as irrigation water management and planting structure adjustment are strongly required to improve crop resilience to climate variability. Irrigation contribution to the maize gross primary productivity across 15 agricultural regions is quantified in ChinaThe irrigation benefits explained by water supply and cooling are identified, and the rest being due to climate interactionsChanging climate both increases and decreases irrigation benefits for maize over different regions, contingent on heat conditions
英文关键词	changing climate; climate interactions; explainable machine learning; irrigation benefits; maize gross primary productivity; surface cooling
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001136513300001
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296345
作者单位	China Agricultural University; Universite Paris Saclay; Universite Paris Cite; CEA; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); China Institute of Water Resources & Hydropower Research
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liao, Dehai,Niu, Jun,Ciais, Philippe,et al. Changing Climate Threatens Irrigation Benefits of Maize Gross Primary Productivity in China[J],2024,12(1).
APA	Liao, Dehai,Niu, Jun,Ciais, Philippe,Du, Taisheng,Zhang, Baozhong,&Kang, Shaozhong.(2024).Changing Climate Threatens Irrigation Benefits of Maize Gross Primary Productivity in China.EARTHS FUTURE,12(1).
MLA	Liao, Dehai,et al."Changing Climate Threatens Irrigation Benefits of Maize Gross Primary Productivity in China".EARTHS FUTURE 12.1(2024).