气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Linking the future likelihood of large fires to occur on mountain slopes with fuel connectivity and topography

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-023-06395-y
	Linking the future likelihood of large fires to occur on mountain slopes with fuel connectivity and topography
	Conedera, Marco; Feusi, Jeremy; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris; Krebs, Patrik
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
起始页码	120
结束页码	5
卷号	120 期号:5
英文摘要	In the long run, ongoing climate change is expected to alter fuel production as well as the frequency and severity of fire weather, which may result in an unprecedented frequency of extreme fire events. In this paper we propose a simplified and spatially explicit method to assess the probability of experiencing large fires, based on topography (slope length) as well as extent and aggregation of the forested area (fuel connectivity). We considered 21 homogeneous pyroregions covering entire Switzerland as a study case and computed the length of the upslope paths within the forested areas, simulating ignition points on a systematic 100 x 100 m square grid. We then compared the obtained path lengths for each pyroregion with selected historical large forest fire statistics (e.g., mean area of the largest 5% of fires, maximum burnt area per fire) collected over the course of the last 30 years. This resulted in rather high R2 values, ranging from 0.558 to 0.651. The proposed approach was shown to allow for an easy identification and geo-localization of potential hotspots in terms of the likelihood for large fires to occur in mountainous regions, which is a prerequisite for a targeted planning of fire management measures aimed at preventing large fires and related post-fire gravitative natural hazards.
英文关键词	Steepest path; Slope-driven fires; Megafires; Fire behavior; Burnt area; Switzerland
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001147617900001
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296248
作者单位	Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Conedera, Marco,Feusi, Jeremy,Pezzatti, Gianni Boris,et al. Linking the future likelihood of large fires to occur on mountain slopes with fuel connectivity and topography[J],2024,120(5).
APA	Conedera, Marco,Feusi, Jeremy,Pezzatti, Gianni Boris,&Krebs, Patrik.(2024).Linking the future likelihood of large fires to occur on mountain slopes with fuel connectivity and topography.NATURAL HAZARDS,120(5).
MLA	Conedera, Marco,et al."Linking the future likelihood of large fires to occur on mountain slopes with fuel connectivity and topography".NATURAL HAZARDS 120.5(2024).