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DOI | 10.1038/s43247-024-01255-4 |
Antarctic-wide ice-shelf firn emulation reveals robust future firn air depletion signal for the Antarctic Peninsula | |
Dunmire, Devon; Wever, Nander; Banwell, Alison F.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M. | |
发表日期 | 2024 |
EISSN | 2662-4435 |
起始页码 | 5 |
结束页码 | 1 |
卷号 | 5期号:1 |
英文摘要 | Antarctic firn is critical for ice-shelf stability because it stores meltwater that would otherwise pond on the surface. Ponded meltwater increases the risk of hydrofracture and subsequent potential ice-shelf collapse. Here, we use output from a firn model to build a computationally simpler emulator that uses a random forest to predict ice-shelf effective firn air content, which considers impermeable ice layers that make deeper parts of the firn inaccessible to meltwater, based on climate conditions. We find that summer air temperature and precipitation are the most important climatic features for predicting firn air content. Based on the climatology from an ensemble of Earth System Models, we find that the Larsen C Ice Shelf is most at risk of firn air depletion during the 21st century, while the larger Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves are unlikely to experience substantial firn air content change. This work demonstrates the utility of emulation for computationally efficient estimations of complicated ice sheet processes. By 2100, the Larsen C Ice Shelf may be at risk of firn air depletion, while the larger Ross and Ronne-Filchner Ice Shelfs will probably experience little change in firn air content, according to projections from a statistical firn emulator over 2015-2100. |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001172807600002 |
来源期刊 | COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296176 |
作者单位 | University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dunmire, Devon,Wever, Nander,Banwell, Alison F.,et al. Antarctic-wide ice-shelf firn emulation reveals robust future firn air depletion signal for the Antarctic Peninsula[J],2024,5(1). |
APA | Dunmire, Devon,Wever, Nander,Banwell, Alison F.,&Lenaerts, Jan T. M..(2024).Antarctic-wide ice-shelf firn emulation reveals robust future firn air depletion signal for the Antarctic Peninsula.COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,5(1). |
MLA | Dunmire, Devon,et al."Antarctic-wide ice-shelf firn emulation reveals robust future firn air depletion signal for the Antarctic Peninsula".COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 5.1(2024). |
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